Don't Make It Personal
Veteran, successful market timers and stock traders stay
detached. They know that the markets are impersonal and
they trade their strategies methodically. But novice market
timers (and novice stock traders) often have trouble achieving
this rational mind set.
Stay Detached From Trading Decisions
For example, novice timers (and traders) may take market timing losses and
subsequent drawdowns personally. Seeing it as a hit to their ego, and attaching
personal significance to what is just an everyday fact of all timing and trading
Small losses should be expected, and it's vital that you don't take them personally.
What is important is keeping them small. Never allowing any loss to grow into
a big one. That is accomplished by following a timing strategy that is designed
to protect capital.
Disappointment Is Natural
It is natural for a person to feel disappointed after experiencing a drawdown.
Financially, real money has been lost.
spend a lifetime building up an array of emotional
responses to help us cope with uncomfortable
feelings, those same, quite normal emotional
responses are exactly the opposite of what is
needed to succeed in market timing."
It's perfectly reasonable to feel a little disappointed,
but it isn't useful to take it personally. Disappointment
is a natural emotion, but not very helpful in market timing.
In fact, if you take it personally, you might then try
to gain back that small loss, by exiting your strategy
and taking an ego inspired trade. The odds are good that
you will be the poorer for it.
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Market Timing Requires Doing
Although we spend a lifetime building up an array of emotional responses to
help us cope with uncomfortable feelings, those same, quite normal emotional
responses are exactly the opposite of what is needed to succeed in market timing.
Timing requires that you do the unnatural, and control your emotions. A lifetime
of learning how to respond to uncomfortable feelings or situations MUST by
unlearned to succeed in market timing (or any trading for that matter). Responses
that are correct in personal and even business situations, are sure to cause
losses in trading the financial markets.
You expect to make a profit over time, but in the short term, even a winning
timing strategy is bound to have losers. That's just the nature of probability
So why make it personal? Why put your ego on the line
with each trade?
Why brag when you are lucky enough to have the odds work in your favor and
then be depressed when the odds go against you? Both emotional responses are
normal, yet they are dangerous to successful market timing.
But how do you control perfectly natural emotional responses?
"Unlearning" A Lifetime Of
When it comes to market timing, you've got to UNLEARN responses that you've
spent your whole life learning.
Market timing isn't about you. It is just a strategy that works over time.
In other fields, probability plays little if any role. You put in effort, make
sure you meet the expectations of the people who pay you, and you're a success.
In the traditional workplace, it makes sense to put a little ego and pride
into your work. Your effort and talent often have a direct payoff.
But with market timing, the odds can go against you, no matter how much work
you put in. The perfect trade can go wrong.
you are a seasoned market timer who really has
mastered his or her emotions, you are assured
that the odds will, over time, work in your favor."
That's hard to accept for most people because it means that being a successful
(profitable) market timer or trader, to some extent, is just a matter of the
odds randomly working in your favor. But there is good logic behind this randomness.
And a successful timing or trading strategy uses this logic to profit.
A successful timing strategy will exit losses quickly. It will not stay with
a bullish or bearish position to sooth the ego of the strategy's designer. It
will also stay with a successful trade and not exit quickly to lock in a profit.
That may feel good for a day, but if the profitable trend lasts two, three, five
times longer, you have lost out on a huge profit.
Recognizing that odds are part of trading takes some of the glory out of it.
But on the other hand, understanding odds helps you cope with inevitable drawdowns.
If you are a seasoned market timer who really has mastered his or her emotions,
you are assured that the odds will, over time, work in your favor.
You will enjoy your times of glory as the gains add up. You will hunker down
and quietly follow the signals during unprofitable sideways markets or during
Taking a detached, unemotional approach may take some of the glory out of market
timing, but on the other hand, that same unemotional approach is the KEY to
market timing success.
Most importantly, the unemotional market timer will implement the timing strategy.
He or she will make each trade consistently, with the certainty that over time
the odds will make him or her a successful timer.
At Fibtimer we offer strategies with years of success behind them. But all
of them, at one time or another, have had losing trades. Staying with the chosen
strategy eventually paid off. Timing strategies are designed to make their
profits over time, not in a few weeks or even months, though it is always nice
when that occurs
Remaining unemotional, so that a timing strategy is adhered to not only in
easy (profitable) trading conditions, but also during the tough (unprofitable)
ones, leads to success in a field where the majority fail.
Recent articles from the Fibtimer market timing services;
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Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable.