Subscribe to Our Free Newsletter
 


HOME
LOGIN
SUBSCRIBE

Strategy Information

Subscriber's Q & A
Pro Timer Strategy
Conservative Strategies
SmallCap Fund Timing
Bond Fund Timing
Gold Fund Timing
Sector Fund Timing
U.S. Dollar Fund Timing
ETF & Stock Timing
Stock Market Timing
Testimonials

Subscriber Reports
WEEKLY COMMENTS
Editor 's Report
ACTIVE STRATEGIES
Sector Fund Timer
SmallCap Timer
Gold Timer
CONSERVATIVE
Conserv. S&P Timer
International Fund Timer
Conserv. REIT Timer
Diversified Timing Port.
AGGRESSIVE
Bull & Bear Timer
ETF Timer
Bond Timer
U.S. Dollar Fund Timer
Stock Timer

About Us
Subscriber Support
Email Policy
Terms of Use
Privacy Policy
Prior Commentaries
Editor's Blog
Site Map

Subscriptions
Free Two Week Trial
Free Timing Newsletter


                 FibTimer RSS Market Timing Articles Feed
  Conservative Funds Strategies   • Conservative S&P Funds Timer
  • Conservative REIT Index Funds Timer
  • Diversified Timing Portfolio
  • International Fund Timer

Fibtimer offers four conservative market timing strategies for investors.

Our Conservative S&P Timer for S&P 500 index funds and Conservative REIT Timer for REIT funds timing strategies are designed to have investors fully invested during long term bullish market cycles, and in the safety of cash (money market funds) during prolonged declines.

Our Diversified Timing Portfolio is for more active market timing investors and uses five sector allocations of 20% each to diversify and lessen risk.

Our newest strategy is the International Fund Timing Strategy. Started in 2008 it uses the iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (EFA) and is a conservative strategy, going to cash during bearish market conditions.

The Conservative S&P Funds Timer and Conservative REIT Funds Timer strategies are used by the following investors:

  • Subscribers who not able, or do not wish, to aggressively market time mutual funds such as we do in our active market timing strategies. Buy or sell signals are typically issued once a year (or less).
  • Subscribers who do not have bearish stock index funds available to them or who are uncomfortable using bearish positions.
  • Subscribers using fund companies which have initiated short term trading fees may also not wish to incur those fees unnecessarily. They also do not want to be hit with huge losses during steep market declines or bear markets. These market timing strategies are designed specifically for such investors.

     If you are one of the above, the Conservative S&P Index Funds Timer and Conservative REIT Index Funds Timer strategies may be right for you.

The Diversified Timing Portfolio is more actively traded. It has 20% allocated to the S&P and Nasdaq bull and bear index funds following the ProTimer strategy, 20% allocated to small caps following the Small Cap Timer, 20% to bond funds following the Bond Fund Timer, 20% to an international fund (we use the Rydex international opportunity Fund) and 20% that follows signals in the Conservative S&P Timer.

It all comes together for a diversified and highly profitable market timing strategy. It is designed so that any one position allocation or market sector will not adversely affect the profitability of the strategy.

Performance histories for these three strategies are listed below.

Conservative S&P Funds Timer


Timing Results from 1995
100% Long (bullish) & 100% Cash (bearish) Positions

Year 1995
S&P 500 Index - SPX   untimed + 34.0 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 39.9 %
Year 1996
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 20.3 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 25.5 %
Year 1997
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 30.9 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 42.1 %
Year 1998
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 26.7 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 27.1 %
Year 1999
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 19.5 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 24.0 %
Year 2000
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed - 10.1 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing - 5.5 %
Year 2001
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed - 13.0 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 5.8 %
Year 2002
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed - 23.3 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 4.5 %
Year 2003
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 26.7 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 35.0 %
Year 2004
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 9.0 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 12.6 %
Year 2005
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 3.0 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 4.6 %
Year 2006
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 13.6 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 21.9 %
Year 2007
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 3.5 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 11.2 %
Year 2008
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed  - 38.5 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 4.0 %
Year 2009
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 23.4 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 16.5 %
BUY SIGNAL September 21, 2010   to  SELL SIGNAL  August 9, 2011
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 2.9 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 4.5 %
BUY SIGNAL  December 28, 2011   to  SELL SIGNAL   October 24. 2014 
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 57.2 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 90.6 %
BUY SIGNAL  November 3, 2014    to   SELL SIGNAL  December 16, 2014  
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed - 2.2 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing - 1.8 %
BUY SIGNAL  November 3, 2014    to     SELL SIGNAL  August 20, 2015
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed - 11.1 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing - 10.0 %
BUY SIGNAL  November 11, 2015   to   SELL SIGNAL  January 8, 2016
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed - 7.4 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing - 10.9 %
BUY SIGNAL  July 12, 2016    to   SELL SIGNAL  Sept 12 , 2016
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 0.5 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 0.7 %
BUY SIGNAL  Nov 23 , 2016    to    SELL SIGNAL  Aug 29 , 2016
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 11.0 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 17.3 %
BUY SIGNAL  Sept 1, 2017   to    (open as of 1/23/18)
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 14.6 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 22.1 %


-- Additional trade by trade details for the above strategy are HERE

Conservative REIT Index Funds Timer


Timing Results from 1999
100% Long (bullish) & 100% Cash (bearish) Positions

This strategy uses the CBOE DJ REIT Index (DJR) as the benchmark
to measure performance.
Mutual Fund or Index Buy & Sell Price Gain / Loss
SELL SIGNAL   - Sept. 13, 1999   through   Apr. 3, 2000
Money Market Position   + 3.0 %
BUY SIGNAL   - Apr. 3, 2000   through   Sept. 23, 2002
MS REIT Index 296.15 - 432.83 + 46.2 %
SELL SIGNAL   - Sept. 23, 2002   through   Mar. 24, 2003
Money Market Position   + 1.5 %
BUY SIGNAL  -  Mar. 24, 2003   through   Jun 21, 2007
Rydex Real Estate Fund   (DJR before 1/1/04) 29.82(d) - 41.31 + 61.5 %
SELL SIGNAL   - Jun 21, 2007   through   Aug 31, 2009
Money Market Position   + 7.4 %
BUY SIGNAL  -  Aug. 31, 2009    through   Aug. 23, 2011
Rydex Real Estate Fund  RYHRX 19.97 - 22.28 + 31.1 %
SELL SIGNAL   - Aug. 23, 2011   through   Dec. 28, 2011
Money Market Position   + 0.7 %
BUY SIGNAL  -  Dec. 28, 2011   through   Aug. 19, 2013
Rydex Real Estate Fund  RYHRX 27.06-30.74 + 13.6 %
SELL SIGNAL   - Aug. 19, 2013   through   October 29, 2013
Money Market Position   + 0.3 %
BUY SIGNAL  -  October 29, 2013   through   Nov 1, 2013
Rydex Real Estate Fund  RYHRX 34.16 - 33.85 - 0.9 %
SELL SIGNAL   - Nov 1, 2013   through   Feb 19, 2014
Money Market Position   + 0.3 %
BUY SIGNAL  -  Feb 19, 2014   through   Sept 15, 2014
Rydex Real Estate Fund  RYHRX 32.99 - 34.50 + 4.6 %
SELL SIGNAL   - Sept 15, 2014   through   Oct 29, 2014
Money Market Position   + 0.1 %
BUY SIGNAL -  Oct 29, 2014   through   Dec 16, 2014
Rydex Real Estate Fund  RYHRX 35.66(d) - 35.97 + 0.9 %
BUY SIGNAL  -  Mat 23, 2015    through  May 18, 2015
Rydex Real Estate Fund  RYHRX 37.13 - 38.42 - 4.8 %
BUY SIGNAL  -  Mar 3, 2016    through  Mar 28, 2016
Rydex Real Estate Fund  RYHRX 37.13 - 38.42 + 3.0 %
BUY SIGNAL  -  Mar 30, 2016    through  Apr 8, 2016
Rydex Real Estate Fund  RYHRX 37.13 - 38.42 - 0.1 %
BUY SIGNAL  -  Apr 20, 2016   through  Apr 22, 2016
Rydex Real Estate Fund  RYHRX 37.13 - 38.42 - 0.7 %
BUY SIGNAL  -  May 26, 2016   through  Jun 28 , 2016
Rydex Real Estate Fund  RYHRX 37.13 - 38.42 + 3.6 %
BUY SIGNAL  -  Jun 30, 2016   through  Aug 4 , 2016
Rydex Real Estate Fund  RYHRX 37.13 - 38.42 + 2.7 %
BUY SIGNAL  -  Aug 28, 2016   through  Sept 25 , 2016
Rydex Real Estate Fund  RYHRX 37.13 - 38.42 + 0.7 %


Diversified Timing Portfolio


Timing Results from July 11, 2004

The Diversified Timing Portfolio was added to Fibtimer on July 11, 2004.

  July 11, 2004    through   December 31, 2004
2004  - Diversified Portfolio Total Gain  +  10.4 %  
 December 31, 2004    through   December 31, 2005
2005  - Diversified Portfolio Total Gain  +  4.2 %  
 December 31, 2005   through   December 31, 2006
2006  - Diversified Portfolio Total Gain  +  10.5 % 
 December 31, 2006   through   December 31, 2007
2007  - Diversified Portfolio Total Gain  +  5.0 % 
 December 31, 2007   through   December 31, 2008
2008  - Diversified Portfolio Total Gain  - 9.9 %
 2009
2009  - Diversified Portfolio Total Gain  + 40.8 %
2010
2010  - Diversified Portfolio Total Gain  + 12.2 %
 2011
2011  - Diversified Portfolio Total Gain  + 5.1 %
 2012
2012  - Diversified Portfolio Total Gain  + 10.3 %
 2013
2013  - Diversified Portfolio Total   + 28.2 %
2014
2014  - Diversified Portfolio Total   - 4.7 %
 2015
2015  - Diversified Portfolio Total   + 8.5 %
 2016
2016  - Diversified Portfolio Total   + 15.7 %


International Fund Timing Strategy


Timing Results since 2008

The International Fund Timing Strategy was added to Fibtimer on June 10, 2008.

  June 10, 2008   through   December 31, 2008
2008  - International Untimed  -  42.9 %                 International Timed   +  2.4 %
 2009
2009  - International Untimed  +  23.1 %                International Timed   +  47.3 % 
  2010
2010  - International Untimed  +  5.3 %                   International Timed  -  1.4 %
 2011
2011  - International Untimed  -  17.8 %                International Timed    +  0.5 %
 2012
2012  - International Untimed   +  14.8 %              International Timed    +  11.0 %
2013
2013  - International Untimed   +  17.9 %              International Timed    +  17.9 %
 2014
2014  - International Untimed   -  8.4%                 International Timed    +  21.2 %
 2015
2015  - International Untimed    -  2.9%                International Timed    -  1.2 %
2016
2016  - International Untimed    -  3.0%                 International Timed    + 2.6 %
2017
2017  - International Untimed                    International Timed    

Top of the page

 

© Copyright 1996-2018 Market Timing Strategies Inc All Rights Reserved

Design by LightMix