New Year's Resolutions!
Most everyone makes some sort of New Year's resolution.
And, most everyone fails at following them for very long.
The problem with such resolutions is, they are made because
you already have trouble sticking to them, so one more
promise is not going to change things for very long.
But if this year was different, what would your resolution
At Fibtimer, we are biased. We want our subscribers to
make money. So we will make a list of the resolutions we
would like to see our subscribers keep for the year 2016!
The most important "first step" is to set realistic goals. It makes no sense
to set yourself up for failure by setting a goal that it unlikely to be achieved.
Do not set a goal to reach a specific profit for the year.
Those new to market timing will most likely set a profit
goal of 30% to 40%. Can such profit be achieved? Of course
it can (in fact it happened in 2017 with the Bull/Bear
Timer), but no one knows ahead of time what kind of markets
we will see in 2016, so such a resolution might very well
be doomed to failure from the start
We could see a continued bull market, or even a bear market.
So here is a more realistic profit goal. One that can
be followed with reasonable expectations of success.
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Promise to stick to your chosen timing strategies, so
that you can make as much profit as possible, given what
year 2018 offers us.
This is realistic. You will make as much as you can,
depending on what the markets offer us.
Sticking to the Strategy
We have said this, and written this, so many times. But it is so critical that
we must again say it here.
NO ONE makes money in the markets without following
a trading plan. A strategy designed to profit by using
the ups and downs of the markets to determine whether
you are in a bullish or bearish position.
Trading plans are what make the professionals rich.
They are the difference between winning, and losing.
And if you trade a plan, you have to stick to it. The
reasons you can come up with to abandon a plan cannot
be counted. They are so numerous that no article could
list them all. And they always feel right at the time
they are made.
But there is one sign which will tell you that you are
making a fatal mistake. If you are acting on emotion
and making a decision other than what your followed strategy
tells you to make, you are setting yourself up for disaster.
Trading plans are not just designed to keep us bullish
during a bull market. That is easy. Everyone is bullish
Trading plans are not just designed to keep us bearish
during a bear market. Again, an easy thing considering
everyone will be bearish.
Trading plans are designed to keep us from making rash
decisions are times when the markets are volatile, when
emotions are high, when the vast majority of investors
and traders are panicking and making mistakes. This is
when your chosen plan will keep you safe.
So if you decide to make an emotional exit right at
a crucial moment, why did you bother to use a trading
plan in the first place? You will be jumping out of the
frying pan and into the fire. It's up to you, but a super
New Year's resolution for this year would be, "stick
to the plan!"
Another great resolution would be to avoid impulsive
It is not necessary to trade all the time to be profitable.
What is important is to not allow any trade to become
a big loser.
back at all your impulsive trades of the past.
How many of them turned into disasters? How many
of them became big losers?"
This takes us right back to following the trading plan.
Impulsive trading is a trait that can only be stopped
if you recognize it as a problem. If you are trading
when your strategy has not issued a signal, you are likely
Look back at all your impulsive trades of the past.
How many of them turned into disasters? How many of them
became big losers?
Impulsive trading puts you right in with the majority
of traders, and the majority are usually wrong. They
are especially wrong at times of high emotions, such
as market tops, market bottoms, reactions to news events,
Don't allow yourself to trade unless your trading plan
tells you to. Try to relax and realize that the plan
is unemotional, and allowing your emotions to rule will
cost you money. The plan will not.
Winning All The Time?
This New Year recognize that losing is a part of the
game? Every successful trader takes losses. If those
losses cause you to jump ship, you will then be without
a plan and riding the emotional roller coaster along
with everyone else.
Trading plans keep losses very small. This is what is
important, not the fact that you had a loss. Trading
plans also keep you "in" winning trades. The urge to
take a profit is another reason why market timers act
impulsively. Everyone wants to profit, but giving up
a big profit to lock in a small one is one of the most
common reasons for failure.
Small losses and small winners do not make you successful.
Small losses and big winners do. You must stay with the
We do not exit winning trades until the trend reverses.
Pulling The Trigger
For all those subscribers who have difficulty with being
impulsive, there are also those who recognize the importance
of following a trading plan, but when the signal is issued,
have a great deal of trouble executing it.
If the market has rallied that day, and the signal is
a bearish one, they decide to wait a day and see if it
is correct. Then maybe another day, and another.
is different than back testing. Back testing
is always profitable. Real-time separates the
hucksters from the professionals."
Signals are often not profitable immediately. They are
often made against the prevailing sentiment. Those who
procrastinate will likely find themselves on the outside
looking in. If they wait for the trade to be profitable,
they will have lost some of the profits for themselves.
Second guessing a buy or sell signal is a sure way to
miss out on profits, or increase your risk of losses.
Spread your investments out a bit. This year the falling
dollar made substantial profits while gold stock funds
rose, but then sold off into the year's end. Having several
timing positions that are in different sectors brings
in solid gains year after year, while limiting losses
to only a portion of your investments
Select several of our timing strategies. Some aggressive,
and some conservative. If any one of them under performs,
you will be very happy you diversified.
Using the Diversified Timing Portfolio strategy is a
great way to diversify!
Conclusion and New Year's Resolution
You cannot know ahead of time what the markets are going
to do. Anyone who promises you that "they know" is lying.
Anyone who promises huge gains is lying. Any service
that shows huge gains very year, with no losses is lying.
Real-time is different than back testing. Back testing
is always profitable. Real-time separates the hucksters
from the professionals.
Promise yourself to stick with your selected timing
strategies absolutely. Take every trade. Take those trades
when they are supposed to be taken, not after the fact.
Do not place all your investments in any one strategy.
Especially do not place it all in the most aggressive
strategy just because that strategy has shown good previous
gains. No one knows what the New Year will bring. Diversify.
Wishing each and every one of you a happy, healthy and
prosperous New Year. Remember that life is short. Investing
is important for your future, but it is not the end all.
Spend time with your families. Relax and smell the roses.
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Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable.