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                 FibTimer RSS Market Timing Articles Feed
  Conservative Funds Strategies   • Conservative S&P Funds Timer
  • Conservative REIT Index Funds Timer
  • Diversified Timing Portfolio

FibTimer offers three conservative market timing strategies for investors.

Our Conservative S&P Timer for S&P 500 index funds and Conservative REIT Timer for REIT funds timing strategies are designed to have investors fully invested during long term bullish market cycles, and in the safety of cash (money market funds) during prolonged declines.

Our Diversified Timing Portfolio is for more active market timing investors and uses Sector Funds plus S&P and Nasdaq bull and bear index funds for a diversified and highly profitable market timing strategy. The Diversified Timing Portfolio will rarely have a drawdown. It is designed so that any one industry sector or market sector will not adversely affect the profitability of the strategy.

The Conservative S&P Funds Timer and Conservative REIT Funds Timer strategies are used by the following investors:

  • Subscribers who not able, or do not wish, to aggressively market time mutual funds such as we do in our active market timing strategies. Buy or sell signals are typically issued once a year (or less).
  • Subscribers who do not have bearish stock index funds available to them or who are uncomfortable using bearish positions.
  • Subscribers using fund companies which have initiated short term trading fees may also not wish to incur those fees unnecessarily. They also do not want to be hit with huge losses during steep market declines or bear markets. These market timing strategies are designed specifically for such investors.

     If you are one of the above, the Conservative S&P Index Funds Timer and Conservative REIT Index Funds Timer strategies may be right for you.

The Diversified Timing Portfolio is more actively traded and best used by investors with access to market timing friendly fund companies with a wide range of sector funds available, such as Rydex Funds, Pro Funds, Fidelity Funds.

Performance histories for these three strategies are listed below.

Conservative S&P Funds Timer


Timing Results from 1995 - 2006
100% Long (bullish) & 100% Cash (bearish) Positions

Year 1995
S&P 500 Index - SPX   untimed + 34.0 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 39.9 %
Year 1996
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 20.3 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 25.5 %
Year 1997
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 30.9 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 42.1 %
Year 1998
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 26.7 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 27.1 %
Year 1999
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 19.5 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 24.0 %
Year 2000
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed - 10.1 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing - 5.5 %
Year 2001
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed - 13.0 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 5.8 %
Year 2002
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed - 23.3 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 4.5 %
Year 2003
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 26.7 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 35.0 %
Year 2004
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 9.0 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 12.6 %
Year 2005
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 3.0 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 4.6 %
Year 2006
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 13.6 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 21.9 %
Year 2007
S&P 500 Index - SPX  untimed + 3.5 %
Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)   with Conservative S&P market timing + 11.2 %



Conservative REIT Index Funds Timer


Timing Results from 1999 - 2006
100% Long (bullish) & 100% Cash (bearish) Positions

This strategy uses the CBOE DJ REIT Index (DJR) as the benchmark
to measure performance.
Mutual Fund or Index Buy & Sell Price Gain / Loss
SELL SIGNAL   - Sept. 13, 1999   through   Apr. 3, 2000
Money Market Position   + 3.0 %
BUY SIGNAL   - Apr. 3, 2000   through   Sept. 23, 2002
MS REIT Index 296.15 - 432.83 + 46.2 %
SELL SIGNAL   - Sept. 23, 2002   through   Mar. 24, 2003
Money Market Position   + 1.5 %
BUY SIGNAL  -  Mar. 24, 2003   through   Jun 21, 2007
Rydex Real Estate Fund   (DJR before 1/1/04) 29.82(d) - 41.31 + 61.5 %
SELL SIGNAL   - Jun 21, 2007   through   Jan 13, 2008
Money Market Position   + 2.9 %


Diversified Timing Portfolio


Timing Results from July 11, 2004 - 2006

The Diversified Timing Portfolio was added to FibTimer on July 11, 2004.
The total realized profits through 2006 are stated below.

  July 11, 2004    through   December 31, 2004
2004  - Diversified Portfolio Total Gain  +  10.4 %  
 December 31, 2004    through   December 31, 2005
2005  - Diversified Portfolio Total Gain  +  4.2 %  
 December 31, 2005   through   December 31, 2006
2006  - Diversified Portfolio Total Gain  +  10.5 % 
 December 31, 2006   through   December 31, 2007
2007  - Diversified Portfolio Total Gain  +  5.0 % 

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