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• Conservative S&P Funds Timer
• Conservative REIT Index Funds Timer
• Diversified Timing Portfolio
FibTimer offers three conservative market timing strategies for
investors.
Our Conservative S&P Timer for S&P 500 index funds and
Conservative REIT Timer for REIT funds timing
strategies are designed to have investors fully invested during
long term bullish market cycles, and in the safety of cash (money
market funds) during prolonged declines.
Our Diversified Timing Portfolio
is for more active market timing investors and uses five sector allocations of 20% each to diversify and lessen risk.
The Conservative S&P Funds Timer and Conservative REIT Funds Timer strategies
are used by the following investors:
- Subscribers who not able, or do not wish, to aggressively
market time mutual funds such as we do in our active market
timing strategies. Buy or sell signals are typically issued
once a year (or less).
- Subscribers who do not have bearish stock index funds available
to them or who are uncomfortable using bearish positions.
- Subscribers using fund companies which have initiated short
term trading fees may also not wish to incur those fees unnecessarily.
They also do not want to be hit with huge losses during steep
market declines or bear markets. These market timing strategies
are designed specifically for such investors.
If you are one of the above, the Conservative S&P Index Funds Timer
and Conservative REIT Index Funds Timer strategies may be right for you.
The Diversified Timing Portfolio is more actively traded. It has 20% allocated to the S&P and Nasdaq bull and bear index funds following the ProTimer strategy, 20% allocated to small caps following the Small Cap Timer, 20% to bond funds following the Bond Fund Timer, 20% to an international fund (we use the Rydex international opportunity Fund) and 20% that follows signals in the Conservative S&P Timer.
It all comes together for a diversified and highly profitable market timing strategy. It is designed so that any one position allocation or market sector will not adversely affect the profitability of the strategy.
Performance histories for these three strategies are listed
below.
Conservative S&P Funds Timer
Timing Results from 1995 - 2006
100% Long (bullish) & 100% Cash (bearish) Positions
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| Year
1995 |
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| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| + 34.0 % |
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| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)
with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 39.9 % |
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| Year
1996 |
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| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| + 20.3 % |
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| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)
with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 25.5 % |
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| Year
1997 |
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| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| + 30.9 % |
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| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)
with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 42.1 % |
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| Year
1998 |
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| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| + 26.7 % |
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| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)
with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 27.1 % |
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| Year
1999 |
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| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| + 19.5 % |
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| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)
with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 24.0 % |
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| Year
2000 |
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| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| - 10.1 % |
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| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)
with Conservative S&P market timing |
- 5.5 % |
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| Year
2001 |
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| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| - 13.0 % |
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| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)
with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 5.8 % |
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| Year
2002 |
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| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| - 23.3 % |
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| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)
with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 4.5 % |
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| Year
2003 |
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| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| + 26.7 % |
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| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)
with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 35.0 % |
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| Year
2004 |
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| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| + 9.0 % |
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| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX)
with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 12.6 % |
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| Year
2005 |
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| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| + 3.0 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX) with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 4.6 % |
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| Year
2006 |
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| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| + 13.6 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX) with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 21.9 % |
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| Year
2007 |
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| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| + 3.5 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX) with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 11.2 % |
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| Year
2008 |
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| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| - 38.5 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX) with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 4.0 % |
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| Year
2009 |
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| S&P 500 Index - SPX untimed
| +
23.4 % |
| Rydex Nova Fund (RYNVX) with Conservative S&P market timing |
+ 16.5 % |
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-- Additional trade by trade details for the above strategy are HERE
Conservative REIT Index Funds Timer
Timing Results from 1999 - 2006
100% Long (bullish) & 100% Cash (bearish) Positions
This strategy uses the CBOE DJ REIT Index (DJR) as
the benchmark
to measure performance.
| Mutual Fund
or Index |
Buy & Sell
Price |
Gain /
Loss |
| SELL
SIGNAL - Sept. 13, 1999 through
Apr. 3, 2000 |
| Money Market Position |
|
+ 3.0 % |
| BUY
SIGNAL - Apr. 3, 2000 through
Sept. 23, 2002 |
| MS REIT Index |
296.15 - 432.83 |
+ 46.2 % |
| SELL
SIGNAL - Sept. 23, 2002 through
Mar. 24, 2003 |
| Money Market Position |
|
+ 1.5 % |
| BUY
SIGNAL - Mar. 24, 2003 through
Jun 21, 2007 |
| Rydex Real Estate Fund (DJR before 1/1/04) |
29.82(d) - 41.31 |
+ 61.5 % |
| SELL
SIGNAL - Jun 21, 2007 through
Aug 31, 2009 |
| Money Market Position |
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+ 7.4 % |
| BUY
SIGNAL - Aug 31, 2009 through
Dec 31, 2009 (Open) |
| Rydex
Real Estate Fund RYHRX |
19.97 - 22.28 |
+ 11.6 % |
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Diversified Timing Portfolio
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Timing Results from
July 11, 2004 - 2008
The Diversified Timing Portfolio was added to FibTimer on
July 11, 2004.
| July
11, 2004 through December 31,
2004 |
| 2004 - Diversified
Portfolio Total Gain + 10.4 %
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| December 31, 2004 through December 31,
2005 |
| 2005 - Diversified
Portfolio Total Gain + 4.2 % |
| December 31, 2005 through December 31,
2006 |
| 2006 - Diversified
Portfolio Total Gain + 10.5 %
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| December 31, 2006 through December 31,
2007 |
| 2007 - Diversified
Portfolio Total Gain + 5.0 %
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| December 31, 2007 through December 31,
2008 |
| 2008 - Diversified
Portfolio Total Gain - 9.9 %
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| December
31, 2008 through December 31,
2009 |
| 2009 -
Diversified Portfolio Total Gain +
40.8 %
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