Market Timer, Know Yourself
Fibtimer's success depends on "your" success. We want you to be successful.
To achieve this requires not only successful market timing strategies,
which we provide, but subscribers must also follow those strategies correctly.
One of the most difficult tasks for us at Fibtimer, is trying to help subscribers
understand what is required to achieve success in market timing. We can publish
the reports, but if the strategies are not followed correctly, the odds of
being profitable diminish.
This commentary covers some of the questions we would ask every subscriber
if we could talk to them personally.
Know Your Limits
Subscribers should use the strategies that suit them best. We have aggressive,
active, and conservative timing strategies. Make sure you know what sort of
timing strategy you are emotionally able to handle.
A novice market timer, who jumps right into an aggressive timing strategy,
might have a difficult time when facing several trades in a fast market. It
does not happen often, but it can happen.
If you are conservative, use a conservative strategy. If you are a bit
more aggressive, use the active strategies. Remember that you do not have
to make lots of trades to be profitable. During volatile markets our more
conservative strategies are often the best performers.
Jumping The Gun
Another concern is new subscribers who trade immediately. Entering a new position "before" a
new bullish or bearish signal has been issued. We understand the urge to jump
in and get started, but in reality, "mid-signal" entries are usually more risky
than waiting for a new buy or sell signal. When a subscriber enters on his
or her own, mid-trade, the result may be losses that should never have happened
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Patience is a key element to successful market timing. You cannot
rush profits. You "can" rush losses though. So take your time and enter
properly. You have years of timing ahead. The markets have been around
for hundreds of years. They are not going anywhere. Wait and do it
Our conservative and active strategies are designed to manage risk in volatile,
or sideways markets, and to correctly place us in bullish or bearish trends
when they occur.
Aggressive strategies often make their biggest gains during bear markets.
When everyone else is losing, the bearish positions are making profits.
The aggressive strategies are often, though not always, the most profitable
over time. But if you exit the strategy after a small loss, you will
not be profitable when the strategies catch a strong bearish (or bullish)
There is an old saying, "If you cannot accept a loss, than you will
never succeed in the markets." If you feel you will worry over multiple
trades, or may not have the discipline to stay with trades that at
times go against the market, use the conservative or active strategies.
This all brings to mind the next important subject. Market timers
should diversify. Putting all your eggs in one basket just does not
make sense. No strategy is perfect. Every strategy will have periods
of non-performance. This is a fact of trading the markets.
|"...If you have all
your timing funds allocated to a single strategy, you are just
hurting your chances of success."
If you have all your timing funds allocated to a single strategy,
you are just hurting your chances of success. If you have the funds
available, use several strategies.
If you do not have the funds available to diversify properly, stay
with the Conservative S&P Timer. It just makes sense. if you do,
consider the Diversified Timing Strategy which has diversification
Finally, there are those subscribers who wait to see if a signal is correct
before following it. This again diminishes the ability of our risk management,
built into the strategies, to work correctly.
In the aggressive and active strategies, the price we enter at, can
be quite different than an entry made two or three days later. This
potential is somewhat lessened in the conservative strategies which
typically hold positions for considerably longer periods of time, but
still should considered.
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Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable.