Successful Market Timing DEPENDS On Change
Historically, The Markets Are Usually In Trends
Trend traders depend on change to make their strategies work. Simply said,
a market that just goes sideways can not be timed. But a market that trends
up and down can be.
History shows us the financial markets are usually in trends. You can go back
hundreds of years. You can look at stock markets, commodity markets, Dutch
tulips, you name it, they are more often in trends, than not in trends.
History also shows us that trends usually last much longer than anyone expects.
For example, after a huge upward trend through most of the 1990s, the U.S.
stock markets were in a down trend (bear market) from 2000 into early 2003.
Any chart can easily show you the trends.
For the next several years, into 2007, the financial markets were in
a solid uptrend. Then again we suffered through another bear market (downtrend)
but Fibtimer subscribers "made" money, instead of taking the 50% losses
that most investors suffered.
Over all, financial markets are in defined trends about 80% of the time. This
has been the case for many, many years.
Sideways Markets Are Actually GOOD news
But what about those sideways times? The times that try our patience
and our will?
The good news is that sideways markets are always either the base or the top
of a new trend. That means the next trend is around the corner when we are
enduring a sideways market. We just have to make sure we are on board and profiting
when it happens.
| "...Think about
how powerful such a trading strategy is. You never miss a trend,
either up or down."
That is where trend trading comes in. We establish a set of rules that
identifies when a trend has begun. If the trend fails, we exit. If it
continues, we stay with the trend no matter how long it lasts! Months...
even years. After the trend fails, according to our preset rules, we exit.
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invested with the trend, which
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We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been
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Cut your losses short and let your winners run. Ever heard that saying?
Think about how powerful such a trading strategy is. You never miss a trend,
either up or down. At tops and bottoms you may get some small whipsaws as the
market becomes volatile and false trends occur as the markets consolidate and
decide which way the next trend will go.
If we encounter a whipsaw, it will result in either a minor loss or small gain
because our money management rules, built into the strategy, do not allow losses
to build. But that whipsaw is just the precursor to the next trend. In fact,
they could be considered exciting times because we KNOW that they are just setting
up our next big trend and big profit.
Have you ever heard of the 80/20 Rule, also known as the Pareto Principle? Dr.
Joseph Juran developed the Pareto Principle after studying the work of Wilfredo
Pareto, a nineteenth century economist.
The Pareto Principle states that a small percentage of your efforts (typically
around 20 percent) will create a large majority of your results (usually around
Expanding Pareto to trading, it follows that roughly 80% of your profits should
come from only 20% of your trades.
That means there likely will be numerous small trades that achieve little, but
that only 20% of the trades you make will make nearly all of the profits.
Think how import that makes every trade!
| "...After a small
loss it is human nature to feel like giving up. This is the
psychological battle that market timers MUST win! "
After a small loss it is human nature to feel like giving
up. This is the psychological battle that market timers
The markets are powered by emotions (fear and greed). But trend traders use
the changes caused by those emotions, to make their profits.
If you give in to those emotions, you lose!
Here at FibTimer, where we have been market timing for over 20 years (since
1982). We always know when a new trend with huge profits is near.
Subscribers become nervous. Financial news becomes overly
positive or negative. The number of reasons why the markets
cannot go higher (or lower) increase.
Soon after is when the big trade occurs, and we make our big profits for the
It happened during the bull market top in 1999-2000. The
ensuing decline, a strong and powerful downtrend lasting
over two years, realized better than a 100% gain for Fibtimer
Bull & Bear Aggressive Timers as the stock market collapsed.
It happened again in March of 2009 when everyone was bearish,
but our buy signals in that month put us into the beginning
of a market advance that lasted a full year with well over
Think about the 2008-2009 bear market. Even our conservative
subscribers were 50% ahead of the buy-and-hold crowd because
they were in money market funds missing the entire decline.
Importantly, knowing that you will be on the correct
side of every "trend" means you will be in the next rally
or out of the next steep decline or bear market.
These are more than just comforting thoughts. They are
critical to profitable strategies in troubled times.
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Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable.