Have The Markets Changed? Part 2
Last week we began to answer the question asked us by many of our subscribers, "have
the markets changed?"
Our answer... was no.
To read last week's "Part 1 " click
The markets have been unchanged for hundreds of years, and there is no reason
to believe they will not continue unchanged.
Prices must either go up, down or sideways. One of these three outcomes will
occur. Change is inevitable and has been the one thing that can be counted on
in the markets throughout history.
No advances in technology, no leaps of modern science, no radical shifts in how
we see the markets will ever alter this fact.
Thus a market timer does not need to predict the future, or even attempt to predict
it. A timer only needs to know the rules of the game and abide by them. If the
market goes up, be long. If the market goes down, be short or in cash.
Strategy Based On Change
Trend following, the basis of our timing strategies here at FibTimer, cannot
fail over any fair time frame. Why? Because trend following uses the one thing
guaranteed to occur in the markets to make its trading decisions... Change.
|"A profitable trend following
strategy lets winning positions (trends) continue, while quickly
exiting positions that go against you."
Trend followers are always poised to jump on board the next unexpected
major move in the markets, and to profit from it.
A great trend following system adapts to and uses change. The future is its
most important ally.
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A good trend following strategy lets profitable positions continue,
while quickly exiting positions that go against you.
However there is one way a trend following strategy can fail.
A timing strategy that is not applied systematically, with discipline,
in both good and bad times, is not a strategy.
A strategy that is exited during unprofitable or emotional times, will not
work over time, because you cannot know when the next profitable market move
Starting a timing strategy based on a solid track record of previous profitable
results, such as those at Fibtimer, is fine. But if you cannot stick to the
plan, the results we achieve over the years will not be the results achieved
Our trend following trading strategies are based on the only constant the financial
markets offer us. They are based on change. We make our profits when the markets
When the markets are tough, you need only to execute the timing strategy. Having
the strategy gives us the ability to avoid making difficult decisions under
pressure when we are most likely to make mistakes.
By trading trends we never miss a major trend. We only need to have faith in
the system, and trade it. When the inevitable next big move occurs, we are
thus guaranteed to be profiting from it.
Change is inevitable, and is the only market forecast we can count on. Trading
trends profits from the big moves we know are in the future.
But trading trends requires that we make the trades, in good times and bad.
We will never know ahead of time which buy or sell signal is the one that makes
the big profits.
Lastly, a trend following timing strategy seldom enters or exits at the most
favorable price in a market trend.
Instead, a strategy based on change seeks to close out losing positions quickly
to preserve capital, and to hold profitable positions for as long as the market
trend continues to exist.
The change and volatility implicit in the markets work to your advantage. You
won't make money without them.
Don't get caught up in the whys of the market.
Markets stay the same because they will always change. But as a trend follower,
you don't care, and you always know how to react to change.
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Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable.