There is an old saying, "It's not whether you win or lose
but how you play the game."
Few realize just how relevant that saying is, to achieving profitability in the
The ultimate goal is being profitable over the long term,
with profits greater than what can be achieved with a buy
and hold strategy.
This is what FibTimer is all about. Long term profitability
and beating the averages. It takes years of experience
to achieve this. New traders usually find this out the
hard way when they begin trading with the absolute certainty,
felt only by those who have never experienced a loss, that
they can easily achieve huge gains.
In fact, a new market timer may develop what he or she feels is a great timing
strategy and immediately have a short term gain from it. Or they may exit a
winning strategy and take a trade based on emotions or a news event.
But they will quickly find it's difficult to continue
The stock market is a tough playing field.
Being profitable over time is the only true measure of
a market timer's success and such success requires experience,
discipline, and a tried and true trading strategy.
We have the experience (we have been timing since the
early 1980s) and we have the tried and true timing strategies
(with years of published real-time trading profits). But
if we must instill in our subscribers anything, it is the
ability to follow our strategies correctly and with discipline.
Simply said... If you trade by the seat of your pants,
you may get a win here and there, but you will not accumulate
profits. You will not win over the long term.
Now let's get into the details of this commentary, "It's
all in how you play the game."
Paying A Psychological Price
How do you approach market timing?
Do you try to follow a detailed and disciplined timing
strategy such as the strategies available here at FibTimer?
Or do you rely on current news events, market sentiment
and your gut feelings to make sure all your trades work
out the way you want?
If you rely on the latter, you may pay a psychological price when it comes
to your ability to trade with discipline.
Making a quick profit without a solid and proven market timing strategy may
provide short-term pleasure, but these kinds of winning trades can adversely
influence discipline in the long term. That one short term profit may cost
you a great deal more over time.
Rather than using a well defined market timing strategy, following it, and
getting rewarded by trading it, an undisciplined market timer puts on a trade
haphazardly and may be coincidently rewarded.
In this case, a lack of discipline is rewarded, and this "unjustified" reward
may increase a timer's tendency to abandon timing strategies in the future
because he or she has been rewarded for doing so in the past.
However, the positive outcomes are usually short lived, and a lack of discipline
ultimately produces losses. Trading without a plan makes you part of the "herd" that
follows their emotions over cliffs, over and over again. Don't be one of them.
The stock market is filled with investors who are trading by their emotions.
Emotional investors are what makes the stock market so profitable for those
who understand what the majority of investors are doing, and use this information
Justified Vs. Unjustified
It's useful to distinguish justified wins from unjustified wins.
A justified win is when a market timer follows a timing strategy and over time
generates a nice profit. A win resulting from following a timing strategy is
justified and reinforces discipline.
An unjustified win occurs when a market timer (or any trader) doesn't follow
a well defined strategy or exits a strategy because of emotions (fear & greed),
current news events, market volatility. He or she may be rewarded that time,
but the outcome occurred by chance. The win is unjustified and can reinforce
every trade ensures when the big trade occurs,
the one that makes most of your profits for the
year, you will be onboard and profiting from
That chance win can cost a great deal of money over time.
The easier it is to abandon a sound market timing strategy
when emotions are running high, the more money will be
lost over time. You will have become part of the emotional "herd." And
the herd, the majority of traders, lose.
Discipline Is Crucial
Discipline is crucial for market timing success.
Successful market timers execute a proven trading strategy, over and over, so
that across a series of buys and sells, the strategy produces a solid profit.
Taking every trade ensures when the big trade occurs, the one that makes most
of your profits for the year, you will be onboard and profiting from it.
Consistency is key. One must follow the timing strategy consistently and execute
each and every single trade.
Don't let an unjustified profit interfere with your ability to maintain discipline.
If you abandon a timing strategy, and get an unjustified win, you may feel good
in the short term, but you'll pay a long term price when it comes to your ability
to maintain discipline, and that price is losses.
Follow a real-time tested timing strategy and reinforce the idea that if you
follow it, you will end up with excellent profits in the long run.
Recent articles from the Fibtimer market timing services;
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All Rights Reserved.
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Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable.