The Grass Is Not Greener
On The Other Side
As market timers who trade trends, we are always on the
lookout for a new indicator or strategy that might give
us a better edge and improve results. Education and research
Many hours are spent testing every conceivable timing method. We study suggestions
submitted by subscribers (always appreciated), ideas garnered from analysts seen
on TV, books offering trading strategies and sometimes spend hours just trying
to improve current strategies.
You name it and we have read it, studied it and spent many hours researching
Changing Methodologies To Meet Current
A good friend emailed the following, "A trader puts himself a great risk
of failure trying to guess what the markets are going to do and changing methodologies
to meet current market conditions."
How true. Yet so many investors do just that.
They will follow a timing strategy, but when the strategy
makes a move they are not comfortable with, or the strategy
takes a loss, they either hold back on that buy or sell
signal, or search for another market timing service that
agrees with how they feel at the moment.
They search for someone who will "promise" huge gains.
Who will say they have achieved unrealistic profits over
previous years. Who will promise them the world (just send
your hard earned dollars).
We emphasize "promise" because so many services will do
just that to entice you to subscribe.
achieving profits in the stock market were no
more difficult than going shopping at your local
supermarket, everyone would be a billionaire."
They are out there. We have seen so many websites offering
guaranteed profits of 50%, 75%, 100% (or more) a year we
have stopped looking at them.
Some actual statements copied from market timing websites, "up over 1000%," "gains
averaging from 61% to 263% annually," "Up 1500% in 4 Years," "annual returns
above 100% with only few trades a month," "up over 900%," "97% Winning Trades."
Ranked #1 on TimerTrac.com
3 Weeks + 20.0 %
4 Months + 27.7
Sleepless nights as
your investments are consumed by a
volatile Wall Street? Consider Fibtimer
's trend trading services. Our trading
plans are unemotional and are always
the trend, which
ever way it is headed.
Fibtimer's timing strategies MAKE
in both advancing & declining markets. No
more sleepless nights. No more upset stomachs.
We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been
timing the markets successfully for over 25 years.
Join us and start winning!
We are currently offering 2
to new subscribers.
We personally watched a new market timing service, who's
owner asked us for advice (and who's service will not
be named here), post years of incredible gains, all achieved
by back-testing. Gains averaging 60% to 80% a year every
They started their new service and by the year's end
had achieved a loss. Real time trading is completely
different than back-testing. Anyone can back-test and
achieve wonderful results, but real-time pits you against
the real world.
Every time we are told of a new
service that has achieved spectacular results, we check
how long they have been in business. Usually it is
less than a year. But they are posting trades going
back many, many years. Is this not a bit suspicious?
Getting back to that new website, at the start of the
new year, those losses disappeared.
I looked. They are nowhere to be found. All I could find were beautiful charts
showing how much you would have made, had you followed their strategy for the
last ten years.
It is so easy to make your results look better than
Please do not fall for such scams.
Making money in the stock market is not easy. It takes hard work and patience.
Anyone who says they have the key to easy money is lying. We received an email
recently from a service advertising 288 winning trades with only 3 losing ones.
Sure... There are people still buying the Brooklyn Bridge too. At FibTimer
we tell all our subscribers that losses are inevitable in trading. The trick
is to keep them as small as possible.
We also post every trade, and keep those trades posted
on the website for years. Every strategy has a link to
a "Trading History" page with complete trade history
and details for that strategy.
If achieving profits in the stock market were no more difficult than going
shopping at your local supermarket, everyone would be a billionaire.
FibTimer offers solid results by trading "all" trends, for subscribers who "stay" with
our strategies and do not exit at the first small loss or inconvenient news
The Grass Is "Usually" Greener During Drawdowns
Typically, market timers experiencing a drawdown are most tempted to change
methodologies. If the grass is always greener, it makes sense that it appears
vivid green when your strategy is experiencing a loss.
But changing methodologies mid trade is almost always a losing proposition.
Traders who change strategies during a drawdown are attempting to "forecast" what
the market will do next. There is no way to do this consistently, so the odds
are, the change is a mistake. ALL strategies have periods when the markets
move against them. If traders think otherwise, they are headed for losses.
You can always find an indicator that worked perfectly over the prior weeks
or months. It is easy to find an accurate forecaster "after" the fact. It is
an entirely different matter being accurate in real time and then doing it
will never realize the profits that are attained
by staying the course with a solidly performing
Emotions are the primary reason for changing a good
strategy mid trade. We have written so many commentaries
about emotions, this may be repetitive to many of our
subscribers, but it is extremely important.
Emotional decisions are almost always losing decisions.
Trends are where the money is made. They last longer
than anyone expects, and usually no one believes them
when they start. They last months, or a year or more.
Take a look at a long term chart of the markets. One
that covers ten or more years. See any trends in there?
Don't Be Misled By False Promises
Because no one can accurately forecast the future, some trends will
fail. But at FibTimer we exit those failed trends quickly.
As long as "every" trend is traded, trend followers will "always" be fully
invested in every real trend. They will "never" miss a trend!
Those who stayed the course with Fibtimer during the 2008-2009 bear market
realized solid gains. And over following years those gains have multiplied to
become huge gains.
We did the same during the 2001-2003 bear market.
In fact we have been market timing since 1982, and online
Trend trading is the sure path to consistent long term
profits. Strategies based on any of the many, many indicators
are subject to periods of time when those indicators
fail. Do not be misled by anyone who promises he or she
has found the perfect indicator. It does not exist.
Use common sense and stay with the trends to ensure you
are "never" left behind
in any rally, and are always protected during a bear market or prolonged decline
(or profiting in a bearish position).
Recent articles from the Fibtimer market timing services;
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All Rights Reserved.
Fibtimer reports may not be redistributed without
Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable.