Strategy Descriptions Subscriber's Q & A Pro Timer Strategies Conservative Strategies SmallCap Fund Timer Bond Fund Timer Gold Fund Timer Sector Fund Timer U.S. Dollar Fund Timer ETF & Stock Timer Stock Market Timing Testimonials Subscriber Reports   WEEKLY COMMENTS Editor's Report   ACTIVE STRATEGIES Sector Fund Timer SmallCap Timer Gold Timer   CONSERVATIVE Conserv. S&P Timer Conserv. REIT Timer Diversified Timing Port.   AGGRESSIVE Bull-Bear Pro Timer ETF Timer Bond Timer U.S. Dollar Fund Timer Stock Timer About Fibtimer Subscriber Support Email Policy Terms of Use Privacy Policy Managed Accounts Prior Commentaries Site Map Subscriptions Free Two Week Trial Free Timing Newsletter Affiliate Program Financial Links   © Copyright 1996-2005 Market Timing Strategies Inc All Rights Reserved

S&P Weekly Chart  Long Term Market Timing Projection When trying to project the long term "probabilities" of the market, we look at the S&P 500 Index, which is an excellent representative of the overall stock market. We see the stock market as having been in a bull market since August 1982. The S&P was hovering around 104, and in the almost 18 year bull market that followed, it rose to a high of 1552 in March, 2000. Since that time we have had a retracement (correction) of that bull move which has not yet reached the levels required to be considered complete. Probability dictates that the market will retrace 50% to 61.8% (and as much as 78.6%) before a correction is considered to be complete, and a new bull market can begin. On the chart below, which covers 1999 into 2003, you can see how the market bounced at the 38.2% retracement of the long term bull market in March, 2001. The S&P then broke that 38.2% support, and moved to new lows in September, 2001. In October, 2002 it again broke critical support at the 50% level. We must now expect it to reach the next support, which is at 61.8% (or about 658) on the S&P. These are the "probabilities" based on expected Fibonacci support and resistance levels which occur over and over again in the markets. When these support and resistance levels merge with 3 and 5 wave Elliot Wave patterns, they create excellent trading opportunities. We will continue to trade these opportunities as the overall patterns play out. However, after the S&P completes the current corrective rally (a rally in a bear market), we expect the S&P to again decline and complete its long term pattern which has taken almost 20 years to date. And, that decline "should" reach the 658 level (a normal 61.8% retracement on the S&P) before it is completed. S&P 500 Index - Weekly Chart - 1999 - 2003 Chart may take a few seconds to load S&P 500 Index - Monthly Chart - 1982 - 2003 Chart may take a few seconds to load To go back to the page you were on, please use the "Back" button on your browser, or the links in the Navigation bar at the left of every page of this website. Back to Top of Page     © Copyright 1996-2005, Market Timing Strategies, Inc., All Rights Reserved.      Site Map    SUBSCRIBER'S REPORTS   STRATEGIES & PERFORMANCE   ABOUT Fibtimer THIS WEEK'S COMMENTARY    ACTIVE STRATEGIES Bull Pro Timer Sector Fund Timer SmallCap Fund Timer Gold Fund Timer    CONSERVATIVE STRATEGIES Conservative S&P Timer Conservative REIT Timer Diversified Timing Portfolio    AGGRESSIVE STRATEGIES Bull & Bear Pro Timer ETF Timer Bond Fund Timer U.S. Dollar Fund Timer Stock Timer   STRATEGIES EXPLAINED Pro Timer Strategies Conservative Strategies Small Cap Fund Timing Bond Fund Timing Gold Fund Timing Sector Fund Timer U.S. Dollar Fund Timer ETF & Stock Timer   Q & A and ARCHIVES Subscriber's Q & A Successful Timing Testimonials Archived Commentaries Financial Links   CONTACT & TERMS Contact Us Email Policy Terms of Use Privacy Policy Managed Accounts Site Map   SUBSCRIPTIONS Free Two Week Trial Free Timing Newsletter Affiliate Program