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S&P Weekly Chart
 Long Term Market Timing Projection

When trying to project the long term "probabilities" of the market, we look at the S&P 500 Index, which is an excellent representative of the overall stock market.

We see the stock market as having been in a bull market since August 1982. The S&P was hovering around 104, and in the almost 18 year bull market that followed, it rose to a high of 1552 in March, 2000.

Since that time we have had a retracement (correction) of that bull move which has not yet reached the levels required to be considered complete. Probability dictates that the market will retrace 50% to 61.8% (and as much as 78.6%) before a correction is considered to be complete, and a new bull market can begin.

On the chart below, which covers 1999 into 2003, you can see how the market bounced at the 38.2% retracement of the long term bull market in March, 2001. The S&P then broke that 38.2% support, and moved to new lows in September, 2001. In October, 2002 it again broke critical support at the 50% level. We must now expect it to reach the next support, which is at 61.8% (or about 658) on the S&P.

These are the "probabilities" based on expected Fibonacci support and resistance levels which occur over and over again in the markets. When these support and resistance levels merge with 3 and 5 wave Elliot Wave patterns, they create excellent trading opportunities. We will continue to trade these opportunities as the overall patterns play out. However, after the S&P completes the current corrective rally (a rally in a bear market), we expect the S&P to again decline and complete its long term pattern which has taken almost 20 years to date. And, that decline "should" reach the 658 level (a normal 61.8% retracement on the S&P) before it is completed.

S&P 500 Index - Weekly Chart - 1999 - 2003
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S&P 500 Index - Monthly Chart - 1982 - 2003
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