Questions we are commonly asked are: Have the markets changed? Is it different this time? Have advances in technology made it so the average trader does not have a chance anymore?

These questions are easy to answer, and with complete certainty: No.

Free markets behave the same as they did 200 hundred years ago. The same as they did 40 years ago. They are the same today, and will be the same in the foreseeable future.

Why? Because free markets are never static. Because they always CHANGE. They are subject to the buying and selling of millions of participants, each with his or her own viewpoint and / or expectations.

Any analyst can "predict" a rally or a decline and have a chance of being correct. But try and repeat the feat with consistency.

The only thing you can absolutely count on is change. Markets will advance. Markets will decline.

If you have a trading system that is specifically designed to "use" change, you can take advantage of the market "changes" and make money.

Changes will not impact negatively on you if your strategy for handling them is actually based on them. If your buy and sell signals are created by the ups and downs of the market itself.

Predicting The Market's Future

If change is the only "certainty" looking forward, then how can one predict (forecast) the market's future?

That is the point. "No one" can predict, with any certainty, the market's direction. But while no market forecast can be guaranteed, change "is" guaranteed.

Look at the last 200 years of market history and you will see that it was in a "trend," one way or the other, most of the time.

One thing we can be sure of; if your plan is to just buy and "hope," you will be in for some very unsettling times.

The markets will have incredible moves in the future, both "up," as well as "down." You will be ecstatic during rallies, and upset and worried during declines (and likely depressed and fearing each day during the inevitable bear markets that "will" occur in the future.)

A good trend following strategy lets profitable positions continue, while quickly exiting positions that go against you.

Systematic Trading

However there is one way a trend following strategy can fail.

A timing strategy that is not applied systematically, with discipline, in both good and bad times, is not a strategy.

A strategy that is exited during unprofitable or emotional times, will not work over time, because you cannot know when the next profitable market move will begin.

Starting a timing strategy based on a solid track record of previous profitable results, such as those at Fibtimer, is fine. But if you cannot stick to the plan, the results we achieve over the years will not be the results achieved by you.

Our trend following trading strategies are based on the only constant the financial markets offer us. They are based on change. We make our profits when the markets change.

When the markets are tough, you need only to execute the timing strategy. Having the strategy gives us the ability to avoid making difficult decisions under pressure when we are most likely to make mistakes.

By trading trends we never miss a major trend. We only need to have faith in the system, and trade it. When the inevitable next big move occurs, we are thus guaranteed to be profiting from it.

Conclusion

Change is inevitable, and is the only market forecast we can count on. Trading trends profits from the big moves we know are in the future.

But trading trends requires that we make the trades, in good times and bad. We will never know ahead of time which buy or sell signal is the one that makes the big profits.

Lastly, a trend following timing strategy seldom enters or exits at the most favorable price in a market trend.

Instead, a strategy based on change seeks to close out losing positions quickly to preserve capital, and to hold profitable positions for as long as the market trend continues to exist.

The change and volatility implicit in the markets work to your advantage. You won't make money without them.

Don't get caught up in the whys of the market.

Markets stay the same because they will always change. But as a trend follower, you don't care, and you always know how to react to change.

Recent articles from the Fibtimer market timing services;

• Have the Markets Changed
  
• Focus On The War, Not The Battle
  
• Pulling The Trigger
  
• Is Volatility A Four Letter Word?
  
• Successful Market Timing With FibTimer
  
• When Your Money Is On The Line... Market Timing And Emotions
  
• Instincts vs. Market Timing Strategy
  
  
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