|  
				  
                     Market Timing Discipline, 
Not As Easy As You Thought. 
                   
                    
                      Market timing discipline means controlling impulses and
                        controlling emotions. When emotions rule our trading,
                      loses are usually the result.  
                    This is why successful market timers follow a thoroughly
                      tested timing strategy. One that has been used in all kinds
                      of markets, including bull, bear and sideways markets.  
   
  As many novice market timers can tell you, however, maintaining discipline
  is often easier said than done.  
                    Usually the first problem arises when the markets are
                      between market trends. Possibly you had a nice profit during
                      a rally, but now the market is trading sideways and has
                      generated a small loss on a false signal. There is no trend,
                      or one is certainly not obvious. 
                    You were strong the first couple of signals, making all
                      the trades, but after this loss you are
                      starting to second guess the timing strategy. 
                     Self-Doubt Arises  
                         
                        Just as the vast majority of market participants are
                        driven by fear and greed, many new market timers find
                        it difficult to avoid succumbing to self-doubt and panic.  
   
  Market timing is challenging in that we often take positions "against" the
  prevailing sentiment of most traders. It also has times when false signals
  are generated. But a good strategy does not stick with the false signal. it
  changes and protects capital from large losses. 
                    Losses are part of trading with "all" successful strategies.
                      Small losses are acceptable. Large ones are not.  
                    And remember this, sideways markets are almost always
                      either a base, or a top, and are followed by the next profitable
                      trend. If you do not take all the trades, how will be sure
                      to take the one that generates all the profits?  
                    Invariably, the trade you skip, is the big profit maker.
                      The one that starts the next huge trend. And there is "always" a
                      next trend. In fact, 200 years of trading history shows
                      the markets are in a trend 80% of the time. That 20% in
                      between can be rough, but soon the next trend will begin.  
   
  Discipline is key. It is vital to take whatever steps are necessary to maintain
  discipline and take every trade.  
                    Markets Are Unpredictable In Short
                        Time Frames  
                         
                        The markets are chaotic and unpredictable in short time
                        frames. The current volatility being a perfect example.
                        When faced with an uncertain set of circumstances, it
                        is easy to see why market timers may, at times, feel
                        unsure and unsettled.  
   
  Timers follow strategies that provide entry and exit signals based on timing
  strategies designed to be profitable over time. Strategies that are also designed
  to protect their capital during the inevitable sideways markets. 
                     
                      
                        
                          |    "The
                              more structure you have to follow, the less uncertain
                              and unorganized you'll feel. You will know what
                              to do and when to do it."  | 
                         
                      
                     
                    But no timer can know with certainty how any "one" buy
                      or sell decision will play out. Some market timers thrive
                      on the excitement, but many find it disconcerting.  
   
  The best way to combat feelings of uncertainty is by following a trading plan.
  If one trades with a detailed trading plan, such as the strategies offered
  at FibTimer.com, he or she will impose structure onto an unstructured reality.  
                    The more structure you have to follow, the less uncertain
                      and unorganized you'll feel. You will know what to do and
                      when to do it. 
   
  The markets may seem at times like a mass of confusion, but you can address
  it by following a strategy that actually uses the volatility of the markets
  to generate timing signals. 
                    Optimistic Yet Realistic  
                       
                    One's mood and attitude is another factor that impacts the
                    ability to maintain discipline. An optimistic yet realistic
                    attitude is vital to maintain market timing success.  
                     
Market timing often places you at odds with the current market sentiment. It
is understandably hard to feel optimistic when your position is at odds with
the majority.  
 
Many market timers struggle with trying to maintain a positive or at least neutral
mood.  
 
It takes practice.  
 
Emotions And Decision Making  
 
Maintaining discipline is vital for market timing success. It can be extremely
difficult at times, especially in sideways (non-trending) markets.  
 
The best way to be disciplined is to stick to your timing strategy and keep your
emotions and impulses under control.  
 
Take a look at the trading history of the strategy you are following. Every timing
strategy at FibTimer has a "Trading History" link. You will see times when it
generated losses. On paper they seem insignificant. But when they occurred, subscribers
had difficulty making the trades.  
                    Note that the trading histories posted are real-time.
                      They are not backtested. Fibtimer has been in business
                      through two bear markets (since the mid-90s) and has no
                      backtested results posted.  
                       
                      Now look at the results of the trading strategy after
                      a year. Two years. Three years. Those small losses did
                      not stop the strategies from being very profitable. This
                      important fact will help you to stay the course and make
                      all of the trades.  
   
  Only by maintaining discipline can you realize long term success timing the
  markets. 
                    
 
                     
                        Recent articles from the FibTimer market timing services; 
                         
                     
					
	Discipline Equals Profits For Market Timers
	Have The Markets Changed? Part 2
	Have The Markets Changed?
	Trading With Discipline Key To Market Timing Success
	Trend Following
	The Basics of Support and Resistance
	Being Right? Or Making Money!
	The Forever Strategy
	The Impulsive Trader
       
       
   For prior commentaries still posted on the website, Click 
                      Here
  
   
     
       
       
© Copyright 1996-2010, Market Timing Strategies, Inc., 
                              All Rights Reserved.       
                         
                        FibTimer reports  may not  be redistributed without 
                            permission.  
                         
                        Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is 
                        risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. 
                        The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational 
                        purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or 
                        sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research 
                        and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that 
                  future results will be profitable.                 |