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The "Four Fears" That Can Keep You
From Market Timing Success
"Fear" - is defined in the dictionary as:
"...an unpleasant, often strong emotion caused by anticipation or awareness
of danger...implies anxiety and usually the loss of courage."
The fact is, all traders, investors, and yes market timers, feel fear at times, at some level. What is important is how we address it.
Knowing the definition, and reasons for fear, can actually help market timers to overcome it.
In the book "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas, he describes how most traders (including market timers) "...believe that
they "know" what is going to happen next."
This can cause market timers to put too much importance on the "current" trade (buy or sell signal), and to lose focus on their performance
over time. Market timing is based on "probabilities" that make us successful over time. But too much focus
on a single trade causes the fear levels to rise. As this occurs, market timers become hesitant and cautious,
trying to avoid mistakes. The risks of choking under pressure (not making a trade) build.
All market timers, at times, feel fear. But successful market timers manage their fear, while losing market timers are controlled by it.
When faced with a particularly stressful decision, it is a perfectly normal human response to revert to the "fight or flight"
response. Either we do battle, or flee.
When a market timer feels such an emotional response, his or her decisions are very likely to be adversely affected.
Fear of Loss
The fear of loss can keep a market timer from executing a buy or sell signal. Or it can keep him from exiting a trade when the trading
strategy calls for it. Either can be costly.
No one likes to have losses, but even the very best timers do. The key is to realize that
you are worrying about the results of "that" trade, and not concentrating on executing the strategy, which over time will
make you successful.
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"...fears cloud decisions. And decisions clouded by fear, that feel right at the time they are made, are more often than not... wrong."
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Trading strategies, such as the ones we use here at FibTimer, take time. No single trade makes or breaks the strategy. Once
you understand and accept that, it is much easier to make the trades without the "fight or flight" response hampering
your ability to act. It is absolutely crucial that the strategy be followed!
Fear of Missing Out on Profits
This fear is usually felt during runaway rallies. All your friends are
talking about the incredible profits they are making every day. If you really look at this in the right perspective,
it is a very dangerous kind of fear. It eventually causes you to buy in, and of course, when you and thousands of
others who feel the same way react at the same time, the market is finally at its top.
Having a trading strategy, and sticking to the trading strategy, eliminates this fear. You "know" your plan works, so
you are not susceptible to the "greed" factor that comes so easily in market rallies.
Fear of Losing Profits
This fear arises when you have a profit, and start worrying about losing it. If you take your profits, you will
feel like a winner! But you know this story. The market will likely continue in the same direction, leaving
you with an entirely new set of fears.
Fears cloud decisions. And decisions clouded by fear, that feel right at the time they are made, are more often than not... wrong.
Again, back to the trading strategy. You know what to expect, because you have a strategy that "will" succeed over time.
It "will" bring in those profits. So a commitment to the "strategy" relieves you of the fears of missing out on that
quick profit, and the decision that invariably turns bad.
Fear of Being Wrong
The desire to be "right" is in direct opposition to the ability to be successful.
The desire to be "right" is in direct opposition to the ability to make money.
A market timer's desire to be right, to be able to tell his friends how successful he or she is, can become so powerful,
that a he or she winds up second guessing, the "strategy." Taking winners too quickly, or holding onto losers
in the hopes that they will come back, or at least break even.
Conclusion
To sum it all up, "successful" market timers actually make their profits off the "fears" of the majority of investors,
traders, and even other market timers.
They do this by "sticking to a strategy" and not allowing emotions (fears) to rule their decision making ability.
FibTimer provides the strategies. Based "not" on emotions, but on a sound "trading plan."
Fear can be conquered when you have a plan. As time passes, confidence builds, and the strategies will become easier
and easier to follow. Stick with the plan.
Recent articles from the FibTimer.com market timing services;
Are You Trading The Market? Or Is The Market Trading You...
A Butterfly Flaps Its Wings... Chaos Theory And The Financial Markets
The Impulsive Trader
Rising Oil Prices. Jump Ship or Wait Out The Storm?
Real Estate Investment Trusts, A Wild Ride So Far, But Is It Over?
Hope - Great To Have, But It Won't Make You Money
Pulling The Trigger
Sector Fund Timing,
High Performance In Bull Markets, Safety In Bear Markets
Being Right, Or Making Money?
Market Timing & The Desire For Immediate Success
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All Rights Reserved.
FibTimer reports may not be redistributed without
permission.
Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable. |
