Subscribers trading Sector Funds should check this page daily for changes.

Also, read: "Basics on Trading the Sector Funds, ETFs and Stock Timing Strategies" if you are using the ETF, Sector or Stock Timer strategies.

DIVERSIFY - Subscribers choosing to trade sector funds using the above listings should diversify. Trade at least 8 issues. Single Sectors will profit over time, but diversification will keep tight control on drawdowns, and enhance profitability from the start.

STOPS - Stops for all positions are 10% from their "entry" price. If stopped out, go to cash. We will await next BUY signal for a new entry. Entry prices are always available on the history page if needed.

NO MID SIGNAL ENTRIES - Initial entry should be made only on new buy or sell signal. This is up to subscribers of course, but entering mid-trade adds unnecessary risk.

• Buy/Sell:  A change to either Bullish or Bearish calls for a change in position, "before the close" of the "following" trading day. Entry price for Bullish positions will be updated at that time on this report. Bearish positions move to CASH (money market funds) until a new buy signal is generated.
  
  
• Indicators:  FibTimer industry sector indicators, specific for each industry sector, determine bullish & bearish positions. FibTimer uses the Rydex Sector Funds for this report, but other fund company sector funds with unlimited exchange policies, such as ProFunds, can also be timed using these signals.
  
  
• Entry Date is the last position change, either bullish or bearish.
  
  
• Changed Positions are updated "daily" after the close. Changed positions are labelled as changed.
  
  
• Results are updated weekly (except if a position changes midweek), using the prior Friday's closing price.
  
  
• Report Update Schedule This report is updated "daily" after the close (usually just after 6PM and no later than 9PM, EST).
  
  
• FibTimer Evening Updates are emailed for this report. If you are not receiving them, please let us know at support@fibtimer.com.

Smallcap Chart Analysis

Last week we wrote:

"Up until the very last trading day of 2010, small caps held their own. Friday though appears to have been used to shed losers before the year end and the sector sold off. A single day event does not point to a longer term decline, but next week will be an important one for small caps."

This week:

Although the first week of 2011 was a bullish one for the stock market, small caps did not participate. The Monday rally was strong for small caps but the next day sell off was much worse the Russell 2000 Index than for the other major indexes.

What does this mean going forward? It is a bit too early to say this is a bearish indicator. Certainly we would rather small caps rallied with the rest of the stock market but one week does not make a bearish divergence.

Small caps have surpassed RUT 788 and on Monday it appeared they did so decisively. The week ended with small caps right at this level.

So far this resistance level has kept the index from advancing further. If we do surpass RUT 788 the new target will be at RUT 842.71.

Initial support is now at RUT 763, the June 5, 2008 rally high.

This strategy is BULLISH nd the Rydex Russell 2000 Fund (RYMKX) or other bullish Russell 2000 index fund. Ishares Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM) can also be used.

"Gold stocks reversed higher right at the rising long term trend support line. The potential for a breakout remains high. Corrections have all been shallow and this rally could have a great deal of upside left."

This week:

Gold stocks and gold bullion both sold off this week in one of the largest one-week declines in months.

The rising trend support line has been violated.

We note that the trend was rising at an extremely fast rate and has been unsustainable for some time. But with this commodity you must stay with the trend.

Of course with gold stocks the volatility can be of some duration. We could easily reverse back higher next week. The position remains bullish for now.

We mention again, as we have many times before, gold is volatile. Keep a limit on funds in gold strategies. We have always recommended 5% to 10% as a "maximum" amount.

We use the Rydex Precious Metals Fund as our proxy for gold stocks in this report.

The Gold Timer is in a BULLISH position in the Rydex Precious Metals Fund (RYPMX) (or other bullish diversified gold stocks fund).

S&P 500 Index SPX (Long Term) Chart Analysis

Last week we wrote:

"The S&P 500 Index - SPX made a fractional new high this week. We start the new year, and the closely watched first week in January, on Monday. For many years the stock market tended to rally early in January with strength in the small caps. That has not been the case of late nor has the first week been an accurate forecaster of the rest of the year."

This week:

The S&P 500 Index - SPX rallied in the first week of the new year and those who look to the first week as a leading indicator will be looking for a bullish 2011.

This is also the third year of a presidential cycle and historically the third year is bullish.

The new target for this advance is at SPX 1305.32, the August 11, 2008 rally high. There is also a technical resistance level at SPX 1275 that needs to be surpassed first. It was reached this week but not surpassed.

The aggressive Bull & Bear Strategy follows these short term indicators in more detail.

The conservative strategy is based on long term chart analysis and does not make changes based on emotions, news events, etc.

This is a long-term strategy. It is designed to allow fluctuations in the market and not try to market time every little up and down. The strategy is very long term oriented.

We are in a BULLISH position and in the Rydex S&P 500 Nova Fund (RYNVX) or other S&P 500 index fund. The SPDR Trust - SPY can also be used.

International Funds Chart Analysis

Last week we wrote:

"Higher highs this week for International stocks and a new high for this latest advance. International stocks continue to hold well above the rising long term support line."

This week:

International stocks rallied early this week, but unlike U.S. indexes which mostly closed with gains, international stocks reversed and closed lower. This strategy uses the iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund as our proxy for international stocks in this strategy.

The strategy remains bullish, but while U.S. markets recovered from their October-November correction, international markets are only moderately higher. If there is another correction, international stocks will likely under perform U.S. markets.

The strategy continues to hold its bullish position.

Support is at $54.94 and then at $53.96.

We use the iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund - EFA in this strategy.

This strategy is BULLISH and in the Ishares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (EFA)

REIT Chart Analysis

Last week we wrote:

"REITs gained ground again with strong gains during a week when the stock market was only fractionally higher. REITs remain above their rising trend support line."

This week:

The week started well for REITs but the gains were lost and the sector closed with a slight loss.

The rising trend support line continues to remain unbroken.

Although REITs had strong gains this week, the corrective period that ended for the major indexes last month continues in this sector.

The intra-week lows reached in the correction were close to the 50% retracement support level at DJR 205 and may have marked the lows of this pullback. But we have yet to see a real recovery in the sector.

REITs are back above their 50-day moving average.

The REIT Timer is in a BULLISH position and in the Rydex Real Estate Fund (RYHRX) or other diversified REIT fund.

Strategy Details & Timing Rules

Check this page daily 6PM-9PM EST for changes. All current positions are listed above. Any changes during the week are posted at the top of this page and changes are made the following day.

* Note - iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (EFA)

Emailed alerts are sent when this strategy issues a buy or sell signal.

The "Diversified Timing Portfolio" is for fund timers who wish to have a complete diversified portfolio, with signals and positions available online and easily followed. There will be no analysis in this report as it is covered in our other reports.

Any changes (buys or sells) in positions will be posted at top of page. The positions are as follows:

• 20% in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Funds. (10% in S&P and 10% in Nasdaq). The two index positions total 20% (bullish or bearish position - aggressive)
• 20% in Small Cap Funds (bullish only position - aggressive)
• 20% in Bond Funds (bullish or bearish position - aggressive)
• 20% in S&P Conservative Fund (bullish only position - conservative)
• 20% in International Funds (bullish only position - conservative)

S&P 500 Index (SPX) Chart Analysis

Last week we wrote:

"The S&P 500 Index - SPX finished the year with another weekly gain, though a fractional one, and new weekly closing high. Next week will be the first week in January and watched by many as a forecaster of the coming year. We are not of that mind but we still watch with interest how the new year starts."

This week:

The first week of the New Year is now behind us and the S&P 500 Index - SPX has posted another gain. The SPX closed at 1271.50 and this is a new rally high. The week had higher intra-week lows, higher intra-week highs and a new closing high.

For many years a first week rally often accurately predicted a good year ahead. However as a forecaster for the rest of the year, the first week of January has not been very accurate in recent years. This year we have a rally and we will be watching to see if the year follows to the upside.

The current Elliott Wave count is a concern. Since the correction lows were reached back in late June, 2010, the SPX has risen in a very obvious five wave pattern (see daily chart below). Typically when such a pattern exists, the fifth wave, which we are in now, ends with a substantial correction. But wave analysis has its limitations as does any technical analysis that tries to forecast what will happen in the future.

No doubt this advance is now overextended and overdue for a correction. But corrections are not a bearish prediction. They are normal and needed in any long term advance. Otherwise extremely overbought conditions will finally result in a severe selloff that no one wants.

The weakness of wave analysis is that no one knows just how far an up a wave or series of up waves will go. Selling early is an excellent way of limiting the advantages of trading trends.

The SPX remains above its 50-day moving average having successfully tested it twice at the correction lows. The SPX is well above its 200-day moving average. The 50-day moving average is above the 200-day average which is bullish.

The resistance level we have been watching as the target for this advance, at 1275.25, was reached this week. It has not been decisively surpassed though.

The next major resistance level is up at SPX 1305.32. This is the market high from back on August 11, 2008. Profit taking is likely to take a toll on stock prices assuming we reach this level in coming weeks.

A close decisively above these 2008 highs would be hugely bullish and point to a resumption of the entire 2009 rally and considerably higher highs. The potential for an entirely new bullish wave pattern would be quite real.

The SPX 1217.28 level should act as strong support should the SPX correct this far. When it was reached back in November it resulted in a reversal and month long correction.

Conclusion:

The SPX is above its 50-day moving average and its 200-day average which is bullish. The 50-day average is now above the 200-day average which is technically bullish.

There is a bullish head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily and weekly charts. This is a strong indication that we have a long term bottom now in place. This pattern is marked in both below charts with (SHS)

The target for this advance, at SPX 1275.25, was reached this week. The next target is at SPX 1305.32, the August 11, 2008 rally high.

There is a great deal of talk about the January Effect. How the first week of January goes often predicts the direction of the stock market for the rest of the year. The first week is now history and it was a bullish one. Another indicator that should be considered is the third year of the president's term in office. Typically the third year is very bullish and of course the third year is just ahead.

The SPX portion of this strategy is BULLISH and in the Rydex Nova S&P 500 Fund - RYNVX (or other bullish S&P index fund). The SPDR Trust - SPY can also be used.

S&P 500 Index (SPX), Daily Chart

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) Chart Analysis

"The Nasdaq 100 Index - NDX reached strong resistance last week and this week was unable to close above it. The NDX 2238.98 level is the market high from back on October 31, 2007. As such it is a critical resistance level."

This week:

Last week the Nasdaq 100 Index - NDX was stopped at the NDX 2238.98 level. After a week of trying to surpass the level it had pulled back by the prior Friday's close.

But on Monday this week the NDX made a decisive break above this resistance level. NDX 2238.98 was a very important level as it was the rally high from all the way back on October 31, 2007. The index is now at its highest point since October 2007 and for those who point to new highs as a bullish indicator, this is a whopper.

This also was the first trading day of 2011. The rest of the week also was strong with the NDX closing right at its highs. Those who look at the first week as a leading indicator should be looking for a good year ahead.

As with the SPX, the NDX is following a five wave pattern and it looks like we are nearing the end of a wave 5 advance. Could we soon see a wave 5 high and subsequent reversal? Certainly it is possible, but until we actually correct there is no way to be sure.

The target for this advance is now NDX 2281.52. It was almost reached this week. If we have a decisive close above this level we will post a new target for this advance next week.

Support is now at NDX 2238, the prior resistance level. Below this the next support at NDX 2187 where the 50-day moving average is.

Conclusion:

The NDX is above its 50-day moving average. The NDX is above its 200-day moving average. The averages have crossed and are confirming the advance.

The target for this rally, at NDX 2281.52, has been reached. This level needs to be surpassed before a new target for the rally is considered.

The NDX portion of this strategy is BULLISH and in the Rydex NDX 100 Fund - RYOCX (or other bullish NDX 100 index fund). The Powershares QQQ Trust (QQQQ) can also be used

Current positions are listed at the top of this report. Any changes during the week will be posted there. An emailed FibTimer Alert will also be sent if any changes occur midweek (after 6PM but before 9PM) the evening "before" the changes take effect.

This strategy recommends both BULLISH and BEARISH positions. Please be sure you understand aggressive trading strategies before using bear funds. Please read About Using Bearish Positions before using this strategy.

We always suggest diversifying. Consider this strategy to be used for 20-40% of a diversified market timing portfolio.

IMPORTANT- If either the SPX or NDX portion issues a buy or sell signal, enter the bullish or bearish position with only 50% of the assets allocated to this strategy. Diversification is an important key to long term success.

U.S. Dollar Chart Analysis

Last week we wrote:

"The U.S. dollar is trading right at strong resistance and every time it looks like it is about to break out, it pulls back. Next week, the start of a new year, may give us some direction."

This week:

The U.S. dollar held below resistance for almost six weeks and our signal change to bearish was issued last week.

We are back up at the resistance level and watching closely for signs that the signal was incorrect. The trend appears to be in question. We continue to hold the bearish position for now.

The coming week could see another signal change if the upside continues.

We use the ProFunds Rising U.S. Dollar Fund (RDPIX) in this report for analysis.

BEARISH

This strategy is BEARISH and in the ProFunds Falling U.S. Dollar Fund - FDPIX (or other bearish U.S. Dollar fund). The Powershares  U.S. Dollar ETF (NYSE: UUP) can also be used.

ProFunds Rising U.S. Dollar Fund (RDPIX)
Weekly Chart

Bond Fund Chart Analysis

Last week we wrote:

"Although the trend remains down, bonds have apparently reached a level that is offering support. Intra-week declines are being bought into as can be seen in the below chart."

This week:

Last week we noted that bonds appeared to be holding above support. This week they have broken this support.

The strategy is being whipsawed and if we are forced to make another change it may be to a cash position to protect capital.

For now the strategy remains bullish but close to another signal change.

We use the Rydex U.S. Government Long Bond Fund (RYGBX) as our proxy for bonds in this report.

The strategy is in a BULLISH position in the Rydex U.S. Government Long Bond Fund - RYGBX,  (or other U.S. Government long bond fund).

Subscribers trading ETFs should check this page daily for changes.

Also, read: "Basics on Trading the Sector Funds, ETFs and Stock Timing Strategies" if you are using the ETF, Sector or Stock Timer strategies.

Please read About Using Bearish Positions before using this strategy.

DIVERSIFY - Subscribers choosing to trade ETFs using the above listings should diversify. Single ETFs will profit over time, but diversification will keep tight control on drawdowns, and enhance profitability from the start.

SHORT AVAILABILITY - If your broker does not have shares of a specific ETF to short, go to cash on a sell signal.

STOPS - If an ETF moves 10% or more against the entry price, that position exits to cash immediately. We will then await the next buy or sell signal to reenter a long or short position. We may also decide to discontinue coverage if the ETF is not trending well. If we discontinue coverage, it will remain on the "Trading History" page, and we will note the decision to discontinue on this report.

• Buy/Sell: A change to either Long or Short calls for a change in position, "before the close" of the "following" trading day. Entry price will be updated at that time on this report as well as the "Trade History" page. For the record, we use the closing price. When a position is changed, data marked with a red ( ) or green ( ) arrow will be changed after close of the next trading day.
  
  
• Indicators:   FibTimer trend indicators, specific for each ETF, determine long (bullish) or short (bearish) positions.
  
  
• Entry Date is the last position change, either Long or Short.
  
  
• Current Positions and Results posted are based on the prior Friday's closing price. The results reflect the profit or loss since the last (most recent) buy or sell signal issued, as of last Friday, for each ETF.
  
  
• Midweek Changes If a position changes midweek, we will update the position and the results on the actual day the buy or sell signal is executed, after 6PM and before 9PM EST.
  
  
• Results are updated weekly (except if a position changes midweek), using the prior Friday's closing price.
  
  
• Report Update Schedule This report is updated "daily" after the close (usually just after 6PM and no later than 9PM, EST).
  
  
• FibTimer Evening Updates are emailed for this report. If you are not receiving them, please let us know at support@fibtimer.com.
  
  
• ETFs covered in this report have been selected because they meet our requirements of trending history, acceptable volatility and liquidity. Over time we may add additional issues.
  
  
•   Some subscribers may have difficulty trading a few of the ETFs short because the shares are not available at their brokers. We suggest that you just do not take the short positions in those ETFs, and instead move to cash during sell signals.

Subscribers trading these stocks should check this page daily for changes.

Also, read: "Basics on Trading the Sector Funds, ETFs and Stock Timing Strategies" if you are using the ETF, Sector or Stock Timer strategies.

  Please read About Using Bearish Positions before using this strategy.

DIVERSIFY - Subscribers choosing to trade Stocks using the above listings should diversify. Single stocks will profit over time, but diversification will keep tight control on drawdowns, and enhance profitability from the start.

STOPS - If an stock moves 10% or more against the entry price, that position exits to cash immediately. We will then await the next buy or sell signal to reenter a long or short position. We may also decide to discontinue coverage if the stock is not trending well. If we discontinue coverage, it will remain on the "Trading History" page, and we will note the decision to discontinue on this report.

MID SIGNAL ENTRIES - Initial entry should be made only on new buy or sell signal. This is up to subscribers of course, but entering mid-trade adds unnecessary risk.

• Buy/Sell: A change to either Long or Short calls for a change in position, "before the close" of the "following" trading day. Entry price will be updated at that time on this report as well as the "Trade History" page. For the record, we use the closing price. When a position is changed, data marked with a red ( ) or green ( ) arrow will be changed after close of the next trading day.

• Indicators:   FibTimer trend indicators, specific for each stock, determine long (bullish) or short (bearish) positions.
  
  
• Entry Date is the last position change, either Long or Short.
  
• Current Positions and Results posted are based on the prior Friday's closing price. The results reflect the profit or loss since the last (most recent) buy or sell signal issued, as of last Friday, for each stock.
  
  
• Midweek Changes If a position changes midweek, we will update the position and the results on the actual day the buy or sell signal is executed, after 6PM and before 9PM EST.
  
• Results are updated weekly (except if a position changes midweek), using the prior Friday's closing price.
  
  
• Report Update Schedule This report is updated "daily" after the close (usually just after 6PM and no later than 9PM, EST).
  
  
• FibTimer Evening Updates are emailed for this report. If you are not receiving them, please let us know at support@fibtimer.com.
  
  
• Stocks covered in this report have been selected from the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Most stocks do not trend well, and cannot be profitably timed. But some can. Those that meet our requirements of trending history, acceptable volatility and liquidity are in this report. Over time we will add additional issues.