vs. Market Timing Strategy
are born with basic instincts for survival. They need to
protect themselves at all costs.
Certain critical instincts are inborn, such as hunger,
self-survival, etc. But humans are complex creatures.
We also have learned instincts, habitual ways of behaving
that are so automatic and unconscious that they seem
as if they are part of our very fabric.
Acting Without Thinking Logically
For example, as you drive in traffic, you "instinctively" slow
down or change lanes when the car in front of you seems
to be driving erratically.
You may have noticed that many drivers will make the
lane change to avoid slowing down, and will even speed
up to pass to take advantage of everyone else slowing
People react instinctively. Some act without thinking
logically about their options, without taking steps to
avoid possible danger. They often tend to make poor decisions.
Behavioral economists have demonstrated that people also
make automatic, unconscious decisions when trading the
over time are substantial profits realized, and
only by those market timers who stay the course."
Most people are extremely risk averse. They enjoy the pleasure
of a sure win, even a small one, but try to avoid the
pain of losses at all costs. Yet there is no logical
reason to show such an asymmetry regarding their decision
Investors also sell their winning trades prematurely so
they can lock in their profits.
These unconscious and automatic decisions reflect a strong
and universal human desire to avoid risk.
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FibTimer, all of our strategies are non-discretionary.
Emotions do not play a part in our buy or sell decisions.
Our strategies offer disciplined execution of non-emotional
buy and sell signals.
The reason for following any timing strategy is to remove
yourself from making emotional trades. To remove yourself
from the herd, which is often headed in the wrong direction.
the nearest cliff.
As humans socially evolved, they learned to protect their
survival by playing it safe.
Playing it safe may be prudent for very long-term investors,
but for shorter-term investors... those who are unhappy
with the losses incurred during numerous inevitable downtrends
and who wish to avoid those losses or to capitalize on
the downtrends, fear of risk and uncertainty is an impediment
It is necessary to identify this need for safety and
security and "reprogram" yourself to work around it.
A common illustration of risk aversion happens when market
participants follow the masses, as if they are wild animals
banding together as a herd for protection.
They look toward others for direction, regardless of
During a typical market correction, investors increase
their selling the lower the market goes, with huge numbers
of them selling near the bottom. The same thing happens
in every decline.
As more and more people see prices drop, more and more
participants sell. It is scary to see your investment
the news going to get worse? Will the prices reach even lower
must "reprogram" yourself to think outside the
people are afraid of pain. They are afraid that the price
may go even lower, and they sell because they don't want
to lose even more money.
course not all investors will sell. Some will become so panicked
that they will be afraid to acknowledge their losses and
want to leave them on paper, hoping that the prices will
return to previous levels in the coming weeks. During a bear
market this can be an even worse decision.
masses try to avoid risk and pain, and by doing so, they
tend to behave automatically. Repeating the same actions
time after time.
market timers, in contrast, react more decisively.
carefully follow a trading strategy that is completely devoid
of emotions. They follow through on buy and sell signals
with absolute precision.
know that any one or more buy or sell signals may be wrong,
but they realize that to trade profitably they must learn
to trust their timing strategy and act on it. Only over time
are substantial profits realized, and only by those market
timers who stay the course.
Outside The Box
you want to be a winning market timer, you must learn to
identify your need to follow the masses, and teach yourself
to avoid doing what your need for security compels you to
must reprogram yourself to think outside the box. Rather
than follow the masses, you must follow your timing strategy,
which may be contrary to what most people would do.
time, and with extensive experience, you will develop the
skills that will allow you to trade decisively.
you have reprogrammed your behaviors, you will not be tempted
to follow the masses, but will instead recognize these feelings
for what they are. Instincts for survival, which may work
in the physical world, are likely to cause poor decisions
and loss of capital in the financial world.
than following the masses, you must learn to follow a timing
plan, which is not affected by the emotions of the masses.
more decisively you can follow the timing strategy, the more
profits you'll realize.
Recent articles from the Fibtimer market timing services;
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Disclaimer: The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research
and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that
future results will be profitable.