For Sunday, December 16, 2018                                Go to Website
	Current Strategy Positions Fibtimer currently has 13 successful strategies   S&P 500 Position -        BEARISH   Nasdaq 100 Position -   BEARISH   SmallCaps Position -     BEARISH   U.S. Dollar Position -     BULLISH   Bond Fund Position -     BULLISH   Gold Fund Position  -     BULLISH These positions were started over previous weeks. You need to be a paid subscription for real time signals. International Timer, REIT Timer, the Diversified Portfolio, Sector Funds, ETF and Stock positions are not included above.

Special HALF PRICE Offer ---> CLICK HERE NOW

S&P 500 Index (SPX) Chart Analysis

Last week:

"This "death-cross" pattern occurred weeks ago in the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index (RUT) and this week in the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) charts."

This week:

Is a recession in the future? Hard to ignore that possibility considering the obvious stock market warnings. The stock market looks ahead and today's prices reflect what traders expect to happen in future months.

The bearish patterns are increasing every week.

Last week we added another bearish pattern to the list. The extreme volatility over the past weeks have created a pennant pattern. This occurs when your rallies reach lower highs and declines reach higher lows.

This pattern, drawn on the below daily chart of the SPX, is bearish if it occurs after a downtrend. Typically, in this scenario, the pattern breaks lower and there are further losses.

On Friday of this week that pattern was broken to the downside.

The other bearish patterns are:

A bearish divergence in the latest two SPX highs on the daily chart and MACD which did not make new highs.

There is a five wave pattern (Elliott Wave) that ended in early October. If this pattern has completed we are looking at a decline, potentially, to SPX 2242.

The two-year long trend support line has been broken.

The so-called death-cross pattern has now appeared on all the major index charts.

Fibtimer HALF PRICE Offer! Get Our Full Reports Every Weekend plus Updates Every Trading Day These FREE reports are great, but getting our timing signals daily is what you need to beat the market! only $12.25 monthly for full year Bull & Bear Timer 10 Year Results Fibtimer Timing + 284.2 % 3 Year Results  Fibtimer Timing  + 65.8 % Sleepless nights as your investments are consumed by a volatile Wall Street? Consider Fibtimer's trend trading services. Our trading plans are unemotional and are always invested with the trend, which ever way it is headed. Fibtimer's timing strategies MAKE MONEY in BOTH advancing & declining markets. No more sleepless nights. No more upset stomachs. We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been timing the markets successfully for over 25 years. Join us and start winning! We are currently offering HALF PRICE to new and returning subscribers. --- only $12.25 monthly for full year Special HALF PRICE Offer - CLICK HERE NOW

On Monday of this week the SPX rallied into the close, ending the day in positive territory, but the advances / declines were terrible. Advancing stocks were 973 vs declining 2026. That by itself was a warning that this week was going to see losses.

The Advance-Decline Line for the NYSE Composite Index closed at new lows this week.

The A-D line has now reached its 50-day average line twice and both times reversed and turned lower.

Ominously the A-D line closed below its 200-day average line "again" this week.

The A-D line also closed at "new" lows.

If you think breadth is bad in the above A-D chart, look at the below chart of the stocks in the NYSE (1600 issues) that are "below" their 200-day moving average line.

77.03% of stocks in the NYSE are trading below their 200-day average lines

Look at small caps. They Russell 2000 Small Cap Index (RUT) has now lost -19.1% since it hit new bull market highs in the end of August.

And again this index broke down to new lows this week.

Technically a bear market begins when declines reach 20%. That is only 0.9% further on this daily chart of small caps.

We would have to say that small caps are already deep into a bear market. The 20% rule is fine but this chart is extremely ugly.

Regularly Followed Weekly Charts

NYSE Advance-Decline Line

The NYSE A-D Line is not only below its 200-day line but this week reached a new low.

MACD has posted a bearish crossover and remains in bearish territory for the first time since March.

The A-D line reached its 50-day average line twice in the past month during extreme rallies. Both times it immediately reversed lower.

Note that on each rally the A-D line reached lower highs and on each decline has reached lower lows.

The Nasdaq 100 Index Advance-Decline Line continues to do much better than the NYSE A-D Line. MACD has crossed into bullish territory.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) itself is one of the few major indexes that did not make a new low this week. Though it is trading at its lows.

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is back above the red line set at VIX 20.0.

Considering the losses this week it is surprising that VIX is holding at 21.63.

VIX is calling for continued volatility. The uptrend has broken down.

The number of stocks trading above their 200-day average closed at a new low this week.

77% of stocks in the NYSE are trading "below" their 200-day average lines

Only 22.97% of stocks in the NYSE are above their 200-day average lines as of the close Friday.

Sentiment Indicator

This is a contrarian indicator. Typically, when advisors are mostly bullish, the markets are often near a top.

Note that these numbers are from a week ago. They reflect the preceding week's sentiment.

The number of bulls remains high. Remember that those who are neither bullish nor bearish have bullish positions and really should be considered bullish. Add bulls and those not specifically bearish and you get 79.6% with at least some bullish market positions.

• Investor's Intelligence Bull vs. Bears as of Dec 11, 45.4% bullish vs. 20.4% bearish.
  Bull vs. Bears in the prior week with 46.7% bullish vs. 21.5% bearish.

Fibonacci Support / Resistance Levels

We are now looking at "support levels" from the correction lows. Fib support levels on the weekly chart are as follows; the 38.2% retracement support at 2508, the 50% retracement support at 2375 and the critical 61.8% retracement support at 2242.

Market Moving Economic Reports Released this Week:

Job openings totaled 7.079 million in November, up 1.7 percent vs 6.96 million in October and just shy of August's record of 7.293 million. The current number of openings is more than 1 million above the number of unemployed who have been actively looking for work, at 6.075 million in a direct comparison with October that since fell to 5.975 million in last week's employment report for November. The number of job openings first broke above the number of unemployed back in April this year and have been inversion ever since.

Optimism among small business owners ebbed to the lowest level in 7 months, according to the Small Business Optimism Index, which fell 2.6 points in November to 104.8, below the Econoday consensus as well as the range of analysts' expectations. More than half of the decline stemmed from an 11-point drop to a net 22 percent in expectations that the economy will improve, and a drop in expected real sales, which fell 4 points to a net 26 percent.

A jump in wholesale food prices and traction in service prices offset an expected drop in energy prices making for a 0.1 percent increase in headline producer prices for November which is 1 tenth higher than Econoday's consensus for no change. Ex-energy readings are the key to today's report and show steady and moderate pressure, at a 0.3 percent rise when excluding food and energy and a 0.3 percent rise when excluding food, energy and trade services.

Same store sales were up 6.6 percent year-on-year in the December 8 week, extending the previous week's deceleration from the strongest growth pace in over 12 years by another 0.4 percentage points. Month-to-date sales versus the prior month were down 0.5 percent, matching the weakest reading since the week of June 23, while the full month year-on-gain shrank by 0.2 percentage points from the prior week to 6.6 percent.

A sharp decline in interest rates gave a boost to mortgage activity in the December 7 week, with purchase applications for home mortgages rising a seasonally adjusted 3 percent from the prior week and their year-on-year unadjusted gain increasing by 3.8 percentage points to 4 percent.

A mixed-to-soft consumer price report for November won't be adding much rate-hike pressure at next week's FOMC meeting. The CPI came in as expected at no change with the ex-food ex-energy core rate also at expectations, up 0.2 percent. Energy fell 2.2 percent in the month with gasoline down 4.2 percent reflecting the month's $20 drop in oil. Sharp declines were also posted for apparel at minus 0.9 percent, transportation down 0.8 percent, and education/communications down 0.5 percent. Housing, which is the main component in the CPI, held at trend with a moderate 0.3 percent rise with medical care, another large component, picking back up with a 0.4 percent increase.

Through October and November initial jobless claims had been pivoting higher off historic lows but that's old news. In data for the December 8 week, claims fell a very sharp 27,000 to a much lower-than-expected 206,000 for the best showing since the historic lows of mid-September. For the first time in five weeks the 4-week average is down, 3,750 lower at 224,750 which is still, however, over 10,000 higher than early November.

A steep 12.1 percent drop in prices of petroleum imports pulled total import prices down a sharper-than-expected 1.6 percent in November. Yet there's wider price weakness in the data. When excluding petroleum, import prices are still in the negative column, at minus 0.3 percent in the month. Import prices of finished goods, whether capital goods, consumer goods, or autos, were dead flat in the month with industrial supplies, which often have petroleum components, falling sharply.

Export prices likewise show weakness, falling an unexpected 0.9 percent in November despite a welcome 1.8 percent price bounce for agricultural exports. Export prices for industrial supplies fell 3.0 percent in the month with export prices for finished goods flat to marginally negative in the month.

Sharp contraction in gasoline sales held down November retail sales which rose 0.2 overall and also 0.2 percent when excluding autos. When excluding autos and also gasoline, the strength starts to show with a 0.5 percent gain and when looking at the control group, which excludes gasoline and several other components that slowed in November, sales really jump, up 0.9 percent in a reading that ultimately defines the strength of the results.

Big jumps for utilities and mining more than offset a flat performance at manufacturers to make for a 0.6 percent jump in November industrial production. Utility output surged 3.3 percent in November following two months of soft results tied to hurricane disruptions while mining output, which sank sharply in October, rose 1.7 percent.

December's initial PMI samples report noticeably slowing rates of growth, at a 53.6 composite flash for a roughly 1 point decline in November and the softest showing since May last year. Services make up the bulk of the composite and the index here likewise fell a point to 53.4 to indicate the slowest rate of growth in 11 months. Output and orders both slowed for this sample.

Conclusion:

The SPX dclined to a new low this week with most of the losses occurring on Friday when the index lost -1.91%.

The weakness in the breadth charts continues. Both the NYSE A-D line, and NYSE stocks trading below their 200-day averages, made new lows this week.

The potential that we have finished a two-year bullish 5-wave Elliott Wave pattern (weekly chart below). If this is correct, the decline that follows truly could be substantial. The Elliott Wave pattern is on the weekly chart below.

If we close below the closing lows reached in March, that would confirm that the Elliott Wave pattern has ended.

The SPX portion of this strategy is BEARISH. Aggressive traders should be in CASH (money market funds).

S&P 500 Index (SPX) Daily Chart

S&P 500 Index (SPX), Weekly Chart

We have posted Fibonacci retracement "support" levels for the advance from the February 2016 lows. Those Fib support levels (weekly chart) are; 38.2% at NDX 6256, 50% at NDX 5804 and 61.8% at NDX 5352.

Conclusion:

As we wrote in the SPX analysis above, Monday's very poor breadth that occurred as the market reversed and rallied, was a bearish indicator for the rest of the week.

Though the NDX tacked on some 69 points for the day, there were only 1258 advancing stocks vs. 1854 declining stocks.

The NDX remains below its 200-day average and last week had a so-called "death-cross" where the 50-day average crosses below the 200-day average.

The NDX portion of this strategy is BEARISH. Aggressive traders should be in CASH (money market funds).

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), Weekly Chart