For Sunday, July 1, 2018 

 
 


S&P 500 (SPX) & Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Timing
Aggressive - Both Bullish, Bearish & Cash Positions         Ranked #1 on TimerTrac


For Sunday, July 1, 2018                                Go to Website

Current Strategy Positions
Fibtimer currently has 13 successful strategies

  S&P 500 Position -        BEARISH
  Nasdaq 100 Position -  BEARISH
  SmallCaps Position -
   BEARISH
  U.S. Dollar Position -    BULLISH
  Bond Fund Position -    BULLISH
  Gold Fund Position  -    BEARISH

These positions were started over previous weeks. You need to be a paid subscription for real time signals. Sector Funds, ETF and Stock positions are not included above.


S&P 500 Index (SPX) Chart Analysis

Last week:

"Currently, 70.34% of S&P 500 components are above their 50-day moving averages. Last week, this ratio hit 75%, which represented the highest such reading since late January, when major indexes last hit records."

This week:

The 50-day moving average appears to be key for this pullback. The S&P 500 Index traded below initial support (horizontal green line) and then reached its 50-day average line and closed the week right at that line.

On Wednesday the SPX and most of the major indexes rallied back up to that initial support line but then collapsed and closed below the 50-day line. Wednesday was a bearish outside reversal day.

These occur when the market trades higher than the previous day's highs and then closes lower than the previous day's lows.

Very bullish intra-day sentiment is suddenly reversed and all the gains are erased.

Though that reversal day was followed by gains on Thursday, Another rally on Friday also collapsed and most of the early gains were erased. On Friday the SPX closed lower than it opened.

Last week we wrote: "This does not mean we are at a top as records are broken all the time, but it does mean we need to follow all sell signals immediately. One of them could be the one that is the start of a bear market."

The end-of-day selling on Friday was a bit ominous. This comes after the bearish outside reversal day on Wednesday and investors have the entire weekend to think about it.

That said, the July 4th week is usually a bullish one. Obviously if a typically bullish holiday week does not end with gains, that would likely point to lower lows ahead.

Another bearish indicator and possibly the most important is the NYSE Advance-Decline Line. Last week we wrote that the line had turned lower but a single bad week, while a concern, did not point to lower lows.

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This week the A-D line closed lower again. Support is at the 50-day average for this indicator.

MACD is headed lower having made a bearish crossover three weeks ago.

A big concern is small caps which have been leading the stock market advance since early May.

Small caps hit new bull market highs two weeks ago but the sector sold off during the last seven trading sessions.

Small caps did bounce off their 50-day average line which is good, but they also suffered that rally reversal on Friday that took a gain and turned it into a loss to end this week.

Small caps lost a whopping -2.52% for the full week, though our small cap strategy posted a nice +9.2% sell signal gain for the preceding advance.

Well respected market technician Ralph Acampora stated he is very concerned about recent stock market actions.

He says that the bullish dynamic in equities may be unraveling. That is particularly the case after the Dow DJIA, -1.26% for the week closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since June 2016, and as key components of the blue-chip benchmark spiraled lower.

There are many big-players who will see this break of the 200-day line as a sell signal and who will be watching Monday's trading closely.

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Fibtimer Timing + 291.4 %
3 Year Results
 Fibtimer Timing  + 67.8 %

1 Year Results
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Sleepless nights as your investments are consumed by a volatile Wall Street? Consider Fibtimer's trend trading services. Our trading plans are unemotional and are always invested with the trend, which ever way it is headed.

Fibtimer's timing strategies MAKE MONEY in BOTH advancing & declining markets. No more sleepless nights. No more upset stomachs.

We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been timing the markets successfully for over 25 years.

Join us and start winning!

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--- Available ONLY This Weekend - only $12.25 monthly

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Regularly Followed Weekly Charts

NYSE Advance-Decline Line

Market breadth closed lower still this week after losing ground in the previous week. This after new highs and a rally lasting five weeks.

Good breadth is the number one indicator of a healthy stock market.

MACD has turned lower and had a bearish crossover in mid-June.


The Nasdaq 100 Index Advance-Decline Line continued the previous week's decline and only stopped moving lower during Thursday's advance.

On Thursday the NDX A-D line reversed off its 50-day moving average line which is a positive.

But as we wrote last week, one week of declines is not a concern but this is now the second week of losses.

The 50-day needs to hold. If not we have substantially lower lows ahead.

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX).

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) reached 19.61 during the week. It closed at 16.09 but VIX was down at 11.22 during this month.

Extreme bullishness is contrarian bearish (eventually).


Market Internals

The number of stocks trading above their 200-day average declined -9.0% this week.

By the close on Friday 53.34% of stocks were trading above their 200-day average line.

This was down from 58.64% the previous week.

Sentiment Indicators

These are contrarian indicators. Typically, when advisors are mostly bullish, the markets are near a top.

Note that these numbers are from a week ago. They reflect the preceding week's sentiment.

The number of bulls remains high. Remember that those who are neither bullish nor bearish have bullish positions and really should be considered bullish. Add bulls and those not specifically bearish and you get 81.6% with at least some bullish market positions.

  • Investor's Intelligence Bull vs. Bears as of June 26, 47.6% bullish vs. 18.4% bearish.
    Bull vs. Bears in the prior week with 52.0% bullish vs. 17.6% bearish.

  • Barron's Magazine Consensus Index shows 52% bullish vs. 56% bullish the previous week.

  • Market Vane's Bullish Consensus shows 59% are bullish vs. 61% bullish the week before.

Fibonacci Support / Resistance Levels

We are now looking at "support levels" from the correction lows. Fib support levels on the weekly chart are as follows; the 38.2% retracement support at 2470, the 50% retracement support at 2346 and the critical 61.8% retracement support at 2222.

Market Moving Economic Reports Released this Week:

Sales of newly-constructed homes were 6.7% higher than a downwardly-revised April pace, and 14.1% higher than a year ago, the Commerce Department said Monday. New-home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual 689,000 rate in May.

Americans are still very optimistic about the U.S. economy, but a little less so than they were a month ago. The consumer confidence index slid to 126.4 this month from a revised 128.8 in May, according to the nonprofit Conference Board that publishes the report. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast a 128.0 reading

 

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Get Our Full Reports Every Weekend
plus Updates Every Trading Day

These FREE reports are NOT enough
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Bull & Bear Timer
10 Year Results

Fibtimer Timing + 291.4 %
3 Year Results
 Fibtimer Timing  + 67.8 %

1 Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 29.1.%

 

Sleepless nights as your investments are consumed by a volatile Wall Street? Consider Fibtimer's trend trading services. Our trading plans are unemotional and are always invested with the trend, which ever way it is headed.

Fibtimer's timing strategies MAKE MONEY in BOTH advancing & declining markets. No more sleepless nights. No more upset stomachs.

We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been timing the markets successfully for over 25 years.

Join us and start winning!

We are currently offering HALF PRICE to new subscribers.

--- Available ONLY This Weekend - only $12.25 monthly

Special HALF PRICE Offer - CLICK HERE NOW

 

Home prices slowed going into and during the early part of the Spring selling season with Case-Shiller the latest to confirm the softening. Case-Shiller's 20-city adjusted index managed only a 0.2 percent gain in April to come up short of Econoday's low estimate. The year-on-year rate, at 6.6 percent, is no better than the low estimate.

Disruption tied to a fire at an auto supplier not only pulled down the previously released manufacturing component of the industrial production report but it also helped pull down durable goods orders in May which fell an as-expected 0.6 percent. Vehicle orders fell 4.2 percent in the month with vehicle shipments down 4.4 percent

Retail inventories, trying to keep pace with rising strength in retail sales, rose 0.4 percent in May following a 0.5 percent build in April, both of which are positives for second-quarter GDP.

U.S. pending home sales declined 0.5% to a reading of 105.9 in May, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. NAR’s index, which tracks real-estate transactions in which a contract has been signed but the transaction hasn’t yet closed, hit a four-month low in May.

Inflation was a little bit warmer than thought in the first quarter, a factor that deflates the third estimate of first-quarter GDP more than expected which came in at a 2.0 percent annualized rate to just make the low end of Econoday's consensus range. The GDP price index came in at 2.2 percent.

Initial jobless claims rose more than expected in the June 23 week but remain very low, at 227,000 which lifts the 4-week average only marginally to 222,000. This average is roughly in line with readings in May which points convincingly at another strong employment report for the month of June. Continuing claims, where data lag by a week, fell 21,000 to 1.705 million with this 4-week average down 3,000 to 1.720 million.

Consumers were upbeat about June but turned less optimistic on the outlook. These were the results of Tuesday's report on consumer confidence and today's consumer sentiment report. June's current conditions component rose a sharp 5.7 points to 116.5 which hints at bounce-back strength for the month's consumer spending, but the expectations component, subdued by tariff concern, fell 2.8 points to 86.3 which is lowest reading since mid-January.

Conclusion:

There was continued downside this week but of more concern were the two bearish reversal days. The first on Wednesday was a bearish outside reversal day and then on Friday a rally almost completely disappeared by the close.

Breadth declined for the second week in a row. The July 4th week is typically a bullish one. Maybe we will see gains. If not though we could be in for a rough July.

The SPX portion of this strategy is BEARISH. Aggressive traders should be in CASH (money market funds).

S&P 500 Index (SPX) Daily Chart


S&P 500 Index (SPX), Weekly Chart



Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) Chart Analysis

Last week we wrote:

"Technology stocks finally pulled back this week after almost continuous gains for the sector since early May. For the full week the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) dropped -0.80%."

This week:

Tech stocks took a big tumble on Monday of this week and it did not get any better during the rest of the week. For the full week the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) dropped -2.18%.

On Wednesday the NDX suffered a bearish outside reversal day. Typically there will be lower lows after such a reversal day.


Fibtimer HALF PRICE Offer!

Get Our Full Reports Every Weekend
plus Updates Every Trading Day

These FREE reports are great, but getting our timing signals daily is what you need to beat the market!

only $12.25 monthly for full year
Bull & Bear Timer
10 Year Results

Fibtimer Timing + 291.4 %
3 Year Results
 Fibtimer Timing  + 67.8 %

1 Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 29.1.%

Sleepless nights as your investments are consumed by a volatile Wall Street? Consider Fibtimer's trend trading services. Our trading plans are unemotional and are always invested with the trend, which ever way it is headed.

Fibtimer's timing strategies MAKE MONEY in BOTH advancing & declining markets. No more sleepless nights. No more upset stomachs.

We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been timing the markets successfully for over 25 years.

Join us and start winning!

We are currently offering HALF PRICE to new and returning subscribers.

--- only $12.25 monthly for full year

Special HALF PRICE Offer - CLICK HERE NOW


The lows on Wednesday broke below the initial support level at NDX 7000. The NDX dropped to its rising 50-day average early on Thursday before closing with a gain.

But similar to the SPX, a rally on Friday was mostly erased by the close to end the week lower.

MACD on the daily chart has made a bearish crossover.

On the weekly chart MACD remains in bullish territory and has posted a bullish crossover.

We have posted Fibonacci retracement "support" levels for the advance from the February 2016 lows. Those Fib support levels (weekly chart) are; 38.2% at NDX 6031, 50% at NDX 5630 and 61.8% at NDX 5230.

Conclusion:

A second week of declines and those declines have escalated.

A big concern is the NDX Advance-Decline line which dropped for a second week.

The NDX portion of this strategy is BEARISH. Aggressive traders should be in CASH (money market funds).

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), Daily Chart


Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), Weekly Chart

 


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