For Sunday, May 27, 2018 

 
 


S&P 500 (SPX) & Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Timing
Aggressive - Both Bullish, Bearish & Cash Positions         Ranked #1 on TimerTrac


For Sunday, May 27, 2018                                Go to Website

Current Strategy Positions
Fibtimer currently has 13 successful strategies

  S&P 500 Position -       BULLISH
  Nasdaq 100 Position -  BULLISH
  SmallCaps Position -
   BULLISH
  U.S. Dollar Position -    BULLISH
  Bond Fund Position -    BEARISH
  Gold Fund Position  -    BEARISH

These positions were started over previous weeks. You need a paid subscription for real time signals. Sector Funds, ETF and Stock positions are not included above.


S&P 500 Index (SPX) Chart Analysis

Last week:

"After the prior week's gains, this was more of a consolidation week though it started with a solid decline on Tuesday. The selling was attributed to the 10-year treasury close over 3%, putting pressure on stock investors to exit equities for the safety of yields."

This week:

The midweek announcement that a meeting with North Korea to arrange denuclearization of the peninsula resulted in a selloff.

This is a news driven market for sure.

But still the major indexes managed to end the week with fractional gains. For the S&P 500 Index that was + 0.31%.

Since the SPX broke above its long-term declining trend resistance line, as well as its 200-day moving average line, the index has traded mostly sideways.

Breakouts or breakdowns from pennant patterns, as seen in the below daily chart of the SPX, typically point to the direction the stock market will now take.

Pennant patterns tend to have a five wave pattern. The early May lows were the wave five of a clearly marked five wave Elliott Wave pattern. Wave five to the downside was followed by the breakout.

Midweek the NYSE Advance-Decline Line reached a new bull market high. The indicator closed slightly off that high for the week. This indicator tracks breadth and as such is extremely important.

New hoghs for the A-D line means it is not just a few powerful companies pulling the market up, but most of the companies are advancing in the broad NYSE which has 1600 stocks.

During the week the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) posted a bullish trend continuation day on Wednesday.

The early morning selloff lows were lower than the previous day's trading range and the rally closed higher than the previous day's highs.

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That pattern is typically followed by more gains.

Note that the NDX also had five waves within a pennant pattern before breaking out in early May.

During the week small caps closed at another new bull market high.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 8 basis points during the week to 3.08% which pushed it above its late 2013 peak near 2.03%. TNX is now trading at the highest level since the summer of 2011.

That level is seen as bearish for stocks as it offers competition for investment funds and it is guaranteed.

Yet the stock market still closed with gains for the full week.

 

Regularly Followed Weekly Charts

NYSE Advance-Decline Line

Market breadth again reached new bull market highs. This is a huge positive for stocks.

Interestingly the A-D line also formed a five-wave pattern and each down wave ended with a higher low. Each up wave has had a higher high.

There were pennant patterns in all the major indexes as well as this A-D line. All the breakouts are to the upside.

The Nasdaq 100 Index Advance-Decline Line closed with a solid gain and is poised to break out to new highs.

A breakout to new highs is likely for this indicator in the weeks ahead.

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX).

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed almost unchanged for the full week at 13.22.

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Fibtimer Timing + 288.9 %
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 Fibtimer Timing  + 59.2 %

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This tells us that investors are turning bullish. They do not feel the need to cover their positions with insurance in the form of options.

Extreme bullishness is contrarian bearish. We are not there yet but it is something to watch.


Market Internals

The NYSE percent of stocks that are trading above their 200-day averages pulled back this week losing about 1.0%.

By the close on Friday 56.35% of stocks were trading above their 200-day average line.

Sentiment Indicators

These are contrarian indicators. Typically, when advisors are mostly bullish, the markets are near a top.

Note that these numbers are from a week ago. They reflect the preceding week's sentiment.

The number of bulls remains high. Remember that those who are neither bullish nor bearish have bullish positions and really should be considered bullish. Add bulls and those not specifically bearish and you get 80.8% with at least some bullish market positions.

  • Investor's Intelligence Bull vs. Bears as of May 22, 49.1% bullish vs. 19.2% bearish.
    Bull vs. Bears in the prior week were 46.6% bullish vs. 19.4% bearish.

  • Barron's Magazine Consensus Index shows 57% bullish vs. 55% bullish the previous week.

  • Market Vane's Bullish Consensus shows 59% are bullish vs. 58% bullish the week before.

Fibonacci Support / Resistance Levels

We are now looking at "support levels" from the correction lows. Fib support levels on the weekly chart are as follows; the 38.2% retracement support at 2470, the 50% retracement support at 2346 and the critical 61.8% retracement support at 2222.

Market Moving Economic Reports Released this Week:

After slowing at the outset of the year, the national activity index -- led by manufacturing and employment -- is back at its expansion best, posting a 0.34 in April following a sharply upward revised 0.32 in March. The 3-month average is at 0.46 vs March's 0.23.

Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District saw robust growth in May, with the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index rising sharply to 16 after plunging into contraction territory with a minus 3 reading in April. Leading the stronger than expected rebound in May were shipments, up 23 points to 15, new orders, up 25 points to 16, capacity utilization, up 23 points to 19, and the number of employees, up 6 points to 18

 

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Get Our Full Reports Every Weekend
plus Updates Every Trading Day

These FREE reports are NOT enough
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10 Year Results

Fibtimer Timing + 288.9 %
3 Year Results
 Fibtimer Timing  + 59.2 %

1 Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 35.5.%

 

Sleepless nights as your investments are consumed by a volatile Wall Street? Consider Fibtimer's trend trading services. Our trading plans are unemotional and are always invested with the trend, which ever way it is headed.

Fibtimer's timing strategies MAKE MONEY in BOTH advancing & declining markets. No more sleepless nights. No more upset stomachs.

We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been timing the markets successfully for over 25 years.

Join us and start winning!

We are currently offering HALF PRICE to new subscribers.

--- Available ONLY This Weekend - only $12.25 monthly

Special HALF PRICE Offer - CLICK HERE NOW

 

Sales of newly-constructed homes dipped in April, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. At a 662,000 selling pace, April was 1.5% lower compared with March, but 11.6% higher than a year ago.

The PMI's service sample popped back up to its prior highs while the manufacturing sample inched up to yet new highs. The services PMI, driven especially by a rise in backlogs, rose more than 1 point to 55.7 to indicate the strongest rate of monthly growth in three months and above the 55 mark where it has appeared several times over the past year.

Existing-home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual 5.46 million pace in April, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. Sales of previously-owned homes fell 2.5% from March to April and were 1.4% lower than a year ago. It was the second-straight month to chart a yearly decline.

Initial jobless claims rose 11,000 in the May 19 week to a higher-than-expected but still very low 234,000, lifting the 4-week average by more than 6,000 to 219,750. Despite the week's rise, claims are still sizably below levels in April which points to strength for next week's employment report.

Tariff-related price inflation may be driving up dollar totals in the factory sector which, based on the April advance durable goods report, has gotten off to a very strong start for the second quarter. Forget the 1.7 percent headline decline in the month, one due entirely to an understandable swing lower for what have been very strong aircraft orders.

A downgrade in the current assessment pulled down the final May reading for consumer sentiment to 98.0 which is 8 tenths lower than the May flash and a full point under Econoday's consensus. Current conditions fell to 111.8 vs 113.3 at mid-month and down from 114.9 in April. The decline hints at weakness for May's job market and in turn for May's consumer spending as well. Expectations also eased, to 89.1 from 89.5 at mid-month and 88.4 from April. This declines hints at less confidence in the jobs and income outlook.

Conclusion:

Last week the stock market consolidated its previous week gains but this week, even though there were several bearish news events, the market overcame the news related losses and closed higher.

Ten year treasuries hit 3.08% midweek and President Trump announce the summit with North Korea had been canceled. None of the bearish news events kept stocks down for long.

The SPX portion of this strategy is BULLISH. Aggressive traders should be in the Rydex Nova S&P 500 Fund - RYNVX (or other bullish S&P 500 index fund or ETF such as SPY or RSP).

S&P 500 Index (SPX) Daily Chart


S&P 500 Index (SPX), Weekly Chart



Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) Chart Analysis

Last week we wrote:

"The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) lost ground this week, closing down -1.24%. Though it is not what we wanted to see, it nevertheless leaves the NDX well above its declining trend resistance line as well as above its 50-day average line."

This week:

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) pushed higher this week gaining +1.38%.

The index had a bullish trend continuation day on Wednesday. Lower lows than the previous day and closing with higher highs than the previous day.

The NDX Advance-Decline Line also closed at a new bull market high. This is extremely positive for coming weeks.

Similar to the SPX, the NDX is also trading mostly sideways since rallying early in May. The bullish trend continuation day may be pointing to more gains ahead.


Fibtimer HALF PRICE Offer!

Get Our Full Reports Every Weekend
plus Updates Every Trading Day

These FREE reports are great, but getting our timing signals daily is what you need to beat the market!

only $12.25 monthly for full year
Bull & Bear Timer
10 Year Results

Fibtimer Timing + 288.9 %
3 Year Results
 Fibtimer Timing  + 59.2 %

1 Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 35.5.%

Sleepless nights as your investments are consumed by a volatile Wall Street? Consider Fibtimer's trend trading services. Our trading plans are unemotional and are always invested with the trend, which ever way it is headed.

Fibtimer's timing strategies MAKE MONEY in BOTH advancing & declining markets. No more sleepless nights. No more upset stomachs.

We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been timing the markets successfully for over 25 years.

Join us and start winning!

We are currently offering HALF PRICE to new and returning subscribers.

--- only $12.25 monthly for full year

Special HALF PRICE Offer - CLICK HERE NOW


MACD on the daily chart remained bullish during the week and closed at 65.75.

On the weekly chart MACD remains in bullish territory and is closing in on a bullish crossover.

We have posted Fibonacci retracement "support" levels for the advance from the February 2016 lows. Those Fib support levels (weekly chart) are; 38.2% at NDX 5995, 50% at NDX 5593 and 61.8% at NDX 5200.

Conclusion:

Last week tech stocks consolidated their strong early May gains. This week the index again pushed higher with a solid +1.38% week gain.

There are many indicators which have turned bullish. Expectation is for the NDX to follow suit and move higher over coming weeks.

The NDX portion of this strategy is BULLISH. Aggressive traders should be in the Rydex NDX 100 Fund - RYOCX (or other bullish NDX 100 index fund or ETF such as QQQ).

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), Daily Chart


Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), Weekly Chart

 


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