Reversal for Ishares Lehman 20yr (NYSE: TLT) Says Market Timer Frank Kollar

July 16, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar)

Only yesterday, our ETF strategy issued a bullish signal for the ETF Ishares Lehman 20 Year (NYSE: TLT). But Wednesday's July 15 reversal changes that.

Sometimes a change in direction for a stock or ETF is so drastic that it can immediately reverse a position.

Wednesday’s decline managed to erase 17 trading days of gains. It also was so severe that it took prices down to the 61.8% retracement support level for the entire June 11 to July 8 advance.

The 61.8% support level is considered critical support. If we move lower in coming days and break support (at $91.13) this will point to a test of the June lows down at $87.56.

Note that we do not advocate a bullish or bearish position at this time. Either trade is too risky. Wait for a break below support or a close above the July 8 highs to determine trend before any trade is established.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy holds a position in TLT.

Kollar is editor and chief analyst at FibTimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) which offers market timing strategies for S&P and Nasdaq index fund traders, as well as bond, gold, small cap, sector, ETF and stock trading strategies.

Kollar’s research has shown that the financial markets are in tradable trends approximately 80 percent of the time. FibTimer strategies define trends and trade them in both advancing and declining markets. Caring nothing about what newscasters say or what the latest economic indicator predicts, trends are where the profits are, and that is where FibTimer is.

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