S&P 500 SPDRS (AMEX: SPY) Closing In On Bear Market Lows Says Market Timer Frank Kollar

February 19, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar)

Shares of the S&P 500 SPDRS (AMEX: SPY) have now lost 12.5% in year 2009, an ominous start for an ETF (and stock market) that has already lost 38.2% in 2008.

After early January 2009 gains failed to hold, SPY has moved mostly sideways with lows reaching $80.54 and highs at $87.39. This was a broad range and it had to be broken eventually. We have been watching for a breakout in either direction to tell us where SPY will go over coming weeks and possibly months.

SPY broke below $80.54 this week and on Wednesday, lost more ground closing at $79.02. This is the test of the November lows that we had been predicted for weeks.

There could be a huge rally from current levels, but watch those bear market lows at $75.45. If we close decisively below them, it may very well be the start of a new wave of declines that have no near-term support levels to slow them down.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy has a position in the S&P 500 SPDRS .

Kollar is editor and chief analyst at FibTimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) which offers market timing strategies for S&P and Nasdaq index fund traders, as well as bond, gold, small cap, sector, ETF and stock trading strategies.

Kollar’s research has shown that the financial markets are in tradable trends approximately 80 percent of the time. FibTimer strategies define trends and trade them in both advancing and declining markets. Caring nothing about what newscasters say or what the latest economic indicator predicts, trends are where the profits are, and that is where FibTimer is.

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