Bond Bear Ahead? Asks Market Timer Frank Kollar

May 30, 2008 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar)

While the stock market rallies, the bond market is taking a tumble. As measured by the ETF Ishares Lehman 20 Year (NYSE: TLT), bonds may be headed lower still.

TLT had a double top in January and March of this year. Looking back to November of 2007, it may also be a bearish head and shoulders pattern.

TLT has now broken below the 50% retracement support, at $90.05, for the entire year long rally in bonds. This forecasts that prices will reach at least the Fib 61.8% retracement level at $88.20.

Then comes the critical test. If $88.20 fails, expect prices to continue lower and likely test the June 2007 lows.

Note that the Fib 61.8% could also result in a reversal. It is key support, but if it fails, watch out below.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy holds a position in TLT.

Kollar’s research has shown that the financial markets are in tradable trends approximately 80 percent of the time. FibTimer strategies define trends and trade them in both advancing and declining markets. Caring nothing about what newscasters say or what the latest economic indicator predicts, trends are where the profits are, and that is where FibTimer is.

Kollar is editor and chief analyst at FibTimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) which offers market timing strategies for S&P and Nasdaq index fund traders, as well as bond, gold, small cap, sector, ETF and stock trading strategies.