Ominous Sign Says Market Timer Frank Kollar
February 15, 2008 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar)
The S&P 500 Index – SPX is flashing a bearish warning that is hard to ignore. It is only one indicator, but still, it is a big one.
Back on October of 2000, the 200-day moving-average for the SPX began to turn lower. This was not something that investors had seen in many years and it was roundly ignored.
Of course, that downward slope for the 200-day moving-average continued through April 2003 and the SPX declined some 50% during that span of time.
Since 2003 the stock market has moved dramatically higher. But a few weeks ago, for the first time in five years, through market advances and market declines, the 200-day moving-average has again turned down.
One indicator does not with any degree of certainty forecast the market’s direction. Only time will give us the answers to that. But traders should be wary. There have been many corrections since 2003, but only now has the 200-day moving-average again turned lower, and that is quite an ominous sign.
Kollar’s research has shown that the financial markets are in tradable trends approximately 80 percent of the time. FibTimer strategies define trends and trade them in both advancing and declining markets. Caring nothing about what newscasters say or what the latest economic indicator predicts, trends are where the profits are, and that is where FibTimer is.
Kollar is editor and chief analyst at FibTimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) which offers market timing strategies for S&P and Nasdaq index fund traders, as well as bond, gold, small cap, sector, ETF and stock trading strategies.
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