For Sunday, June 10, 2018 

 
 


S&P 500 (SPX) & Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Timing
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Current Strategy Positions
Fibtimer currently has 13 successful strategies

  S&P 500 Position -       BULLISH
  Nasdaq 100 Position -  BULLISH
  SmallCaps Position -
   BULLISH
  U.S. Dollar Position -    BULLISH
  Bond Fund Position -    BULLISH
  Gold Fund Position  -    BEARISH

These positions were started over previous weeks. You need to be a paid subscription for real time signals. Sector Funds, ETF and Stock positions are not included above.


S&P 500 Index (SPX) Chart Analysis

Last week:

"If volatility gives you gray hair, then this week likely turned it all white. Huge declines to start the week, a big next day rally, Thursday another selloff and then Friday a rally that ended the full week with a +0.49% gain. That gain leaves the S&P 500 Index (SPX) right at resistance. The highs in May stopped the index at about 2740. That is the next level needing to be topped."

This week:

This week was another breakout week for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) as well as the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) which we will look at here.

The daily chart below shows the early May breakout rally for the SPX, and then a top that held for the rest of the month at about SPX 2740.

On Monday of this week the SPX gapped up at the open and closed above the 2740 resistance level. That gain was followed by a week of solid advances. The SPX closed the week with a gain of +1.62%.

Last week we wrote: "Breakouts or breakdowns from pennant patterns, as seen in the below daily chart of the SPX, typically point to the direction the stock market will now take. That points to an upside move soon to take out those May highs."

The same chart pattern can be seen for the NDX which broke above resistance in early May, then traded sideways for the rest of May.

On Friday of last week the NDX broke out a second time above its May highs.

The NDX then posted another weekly gain of +0.97%.

Small caps did not bother with breakouts and have been outperforming for the entire month of May.

Small caps did breakout above resistance, the declining trend resistance line in the below chart, in early May but since have steadily moved higher.

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Wednesday's advance was a new closing highs for small caps and for the full week the sector added +1.49%.

The best news though is the NYSE Advance-Decline Line. The NYSE has about 1600 stocks and if its A-D line hits new highs, it means most of the 1600 are participating in the rally.

We cover the A-D line further on in this report but look at the advance in this chart!


Optimism is back in full swing and bulls are pouring into stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), also known and the fear index, dropped all the way down to just above 11 during the week.

Last week's Friday advance after the stellar jobs report and unemployment numbers at 3.8% continued into this week.

Technology shares led the market higher and although the sector suffered form a bit of profit-taking on Thursday, the NDX still ended the week with a new bull market high.

Regularly Followed Weekly Charts

NYSE Advance-Decline Line

Market breadth again reached new highs. This is a huge positive for stocks.

The NYSE Advance-Decline Line reached a new bull market high. This indicator tracks breadth and as such is extremely important.

Good breadth is the number one indicator of a healthy stock market.

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New highs for the A-D line means it is not just a few powerful companies pulling the market up, but that most of the companies are advancing in the broad NYSE index which has 1600 stocks.

Interestingly the A-D line also formed a five-wave pattern and each down wave ended with a higher low. Each up wave has had a higher high.

There were pennant patterns in all the major indexes as well as this A-D line. All the breakouts are to the upside.

The Nasdaq 100 Index Advance-Decline Line also closed at a new bull market high.

The NDX A-D line did not break out to new highs until this week but it did so in spectacular fashion as you can see in the below daily chart.

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX).

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) declined -9.5% for the week, closing at 12.18. During the week VIX dropped to 11.22.

Investors are again turning bullish. They do not feel the need to cover their positions with insurance in the form of options.

Extreme bullishness is contrarian bearish (eventually). We are not there yet but it is something to watch.


Market Internals

The NYSE percent of stocks that are trading above their 200-day averages jumped +5.6% this week.

By the close on Friday 60.67% of stocks were trading above their 200-day average line compared to 57.43% in the previous week.

Sentiment Indicators

These are contrarian indicators. Typically, when advisors are mostly bullish, the markets are near a top.

Note that these numbers are from a week ago. They reflect the preceding week's sentiment.

The number of bulls remains high. Remember that those who are neither bullish nor bearish have bullish positions and really should be considered bullish. Add bulls and those not specifically bearish and you get 82.3% with at least some bullish market positions.

  • Investor's Intelligence Bull vs. Bears as of June 5, 52.9% bullish vs. 17.7% bearish.
    Bull vs. Bears in the prior week were 50.0% bullish vs. 19.2% bearish.

  • Barron's Magazine Consensus Index shows 58% bullish vs. 58% bullish the previous week.

  • Market Vane's Bullish Consensus shows 59% are bullish vs. 57% bullish the week before.

Fibonacci Support / Resistance Levels

We are now looking at "support levels" from the correction lows. Fib support levels on the weekly chart are as follows; the 38.2% retracement support at 2470, the 50% retracement support at 2346 and the critical 61.8% retracement support at 2222.

Market Moving Economic Reports Released this Week:

Monday's factory orders report closes the book on what was a solid April for manufacturing in a month when the headline -- an aircraft-distorted 0.8 percent decline -- definitely does not tell the whole story. The split between the report's two main components shows a slight 0.1 percent increase for nondurable goods -- the new data in today's report with petroleum and coal once again higher -- and a 1.6 percent decrease for durable orders which is 1 tenth deeper last week's advance report for this component.

 

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Sleepless nights as your investments are consumed by a volatile Wall Street? Consider Fibtimer's trend trading services. Our trading plans are unemotional and are always invested with the trend, which ever way it is headed.

Fibtimer's timing strategies MAKE MONEY in BOTH advancing & declining markets. No more sleepless nights. No more upset stomachs.

We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been timing the markets successfully for over 25 years.

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--- Available ONLY This Weekend - only $12.25 monthly

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Job openings rose 6.7 million in April. the Labor Department said Tuesday, the best ever in a series that lasts 18 years. March levels were upwardly revised as well, to 6.63 million from an initially reported 6.55 million.

Rising backlogs and a complementary increase in hiring, both running near 3-year highs, gave a surprising lift to the services PMI. At 56.8 for final May, the index is up 2.2 points from April and, even more surprising, is up 1.1 points from the mid-month flash which suggests that conditions accelerated into month end. Output is also near a 3-year high with new orders just off a 3-year high.

The U.S. trade deficit shrank 2.1% in April — before the Trump tariffs took effect — and tumbled to a seven-month low. But the gap is still on track to widen in 2018 to the highest level in a decade.

A small downward revision to output and a small upward revision to hours worked pulled down the second estimate of first-quarter nonfarm productivity to an even more paltry 0.4 percent quarterly gain from 0.7 percent in the first estimate. This in turn lifts unit labor costs to 2.9 percent from the first estimate's 2.7 percent.

Initial jobless claims fell slightly in early June, keeping the rate of layoffs in the U.S. near a 50-year low. New claims dipped by 1,000 to 222,000 in the seven days ended June 2. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a 225,000 reading.

Household wealth topped $100 trillion for the first time in the first quarter, the Federal Reserve said Thursday. Thanks to rising house prices, the net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $100.77 trillion from $99.74 trillion, offsetting the impact of a decline in the stock market.

Conclusion:

Last week we wrote that we were looking for another breakout in coming days after the NDX broke higher on Friday.

Last weekend we wrote: "We are looking for the SPX to push through resistance at the May highs in coming weeks."

That is what happened this week with the SPX adding some +1.62%

Breadth is improving dramatically with the NYSE Advance-Decline line at new bull market highs.

The SPX portion of this strategy is BULLISH. Aggressive traders should be in the Rydex Nova S&P 500 Fund - RYNVX (or other bullish S&P 500 index fund or ETF such as SPY or RSP).

S&P 500 Index (SPX) Daily Chart


S&P 500 Index (SPX), Weekly Chart



Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) Chart Analysis

Last week we wrote:

"Last week the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) had a bullish trend continuation day on Wednesday. Lower lows than the previous day and closing with higher highs than the previous day. The NDX Advance-Decline Line also again closed at a new bull market high. This is extremely positive for coming weeks."

This week:

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) powered through resistance last Friday and this week, with the exception of some Thursday profit-taking, managed to add another +0.97%.

The below chart shows the early May breakout from a bullish pennant pattern and declining trend resistance line.

This time it was the May highs which had become resistance and the NDX pushed through that level, breaking through NDX 7000, last Friday. This week the index added another +1%.

The NDX Advance-Decline line closed at a new bull market high this week. When breadth is good the index’s rise.


Fibtimer HALF PRICE Offer!

Get Our Full Reports Every Weekend
plus Updates Every Trading Day

These FREE reports are great, but getting our timing signals daily is what you need to beat the market!

only $12.25 monthly for full year
Bull & Bear Timer
10 Year Results

Fibtimer Timing + 288.9 %
3 Year Results
 Fibtimer Timing  + 59.2 %

1 Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 35.5.%

Sleepless nights as your investments are consumed by a volatile Wall Street? Consider Fibtimer's trend trading services. Our trading plans are unemotional and are always invested with the trend, which ever way it is headed.

Fibtimer's timing strategies MAKE MONEY in BOTH advancing & declining markets. No more sleepless nights. No more upset stomachs.

We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been timing the markets successfully for over 25 years.

Join us and start winning!

We are currently offering HALF PRICE to new and returning subscribers.

--- only $12.25 monthly for full year

Special HALF PRICE Offer - CLICK HERE NOW


MACD on the daily chart remained bullish during the week and closed at 101.29.

On the weekly chart MACD remains in bullish territory and last week posted a bullish crossover.

We have posted Fibonacci retracement "support" levels for the advance from the February 2016 lows. Those Fib support levels (weekly chart) are; 38.2% at NDX 5980, 50% at NDX 5593 and 61.8% at NDX 5200.

Conclusion:

This week the NDX added another +0.97%. Remember that over the prior two weeks the NDX gained +3.15%, so tech stocks have jumped +4.12% in just three weeks.

Add to this a breakout to new bull market highs for the NDX Advance-Decline line and we are looking at a freight train to the upside.

Rallies always end but so far we do not see any signs of the advance slowing down.

The NDX portion of this strategy is BULLISH. Aggressive traders should be in the Rydex NDX 100 Fund - RYOCX (or other bullish NDX 100 index fund or ETF such as QQQ).

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), Daily Chart


Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), Weekly Chart

 


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