S&P
500 Index - SPX (50%
of Portfolio)
Entry
Date |
Signal |
Mutual
Fund
or
Index |
Entry Current
Price Price
Friday Close |
Time
Frame |
Gain
Loss |
Current
Position |
|
9/5/17 |
Bullish |
Rydex Nova S&P
Fd |
62.58d
- 79.28 |
9/5 - 1/26 |
+ 26.7 % |
Open |
|
3/31/17 |
Bullish |
Rydex Nova S&P
Fd |
60.14 - 63.78 |
3/31 - 8/22 |
+ 6.1 % |
Closed |
|
1/5/17 |
Bullish |
Rydex Nova S&P
Fd |
56.54 - 60.55 |
1/5 - 3/10 |
+ 7.1 % |
Closed |
|
9/22/16 |
Bullish |
Rydex
Nova S&P
Fd |
51.67d
- 56.11 |
9/22
- 1/3 |
+
8.7 % |
Closed |
|
S&P 500 Index
(SPX) Chart Analysis
Last week:
"On Tuesday the Dow Industrials
crossed 26,000 for the first time. This was only
a couple weeks after the Dow crossed 25,000. The
Dow took a steep dive after the 26,000 level was
surpassed. But not to fear, the Dow was back above
26,000 the following day and closed above 26,000,
at 26071 for the full week."
This week:
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is trading at a price-to-sales
ratio of 2.35x. This is a record high valuation.
The SPX advance has been pretty much non-stop. In
the nineteen trading days of this New Year, the index
has risen in all but five of them.
In fact the SPX has made new bull market highs fourteen
times so far this January. This tops a previous record
of 11 times that has stood since 1964, according to
the WSJ Market Data Group.
Over time, the SPX has pulled back 5% about four times
annually since 1927. In this current advance the SPX
has not had a 5% pullback in 400 trading days.
Is the SPX overbought? Absolutely. It is severely
overbought. But it has been for weeks and weeks. If
overbought was a sell signal, you would have missed
a good part of this advance.
Being overbought is a warning flag, but the trend
must actually change in order to exit.
For the full week, the SPX gained + 1.18%.
Small caps continue to rise, though in a fitful way.
Importantly, the long-term rising trend support line,
since August 2016, shows the real trend.
Small caps have been volatile, but their trend is
up.
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Consider Fibtimer's
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plans are unemotional and are always
invested with the trend,
which ever way it is headed.
Fibtimer's
timing strategies MAKE
MONEY in BOTH advancing & declining
markets. No more sleepless nights.
No more upset stomachs.
We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been timing
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The new tax-cut plan should be very
beneficial to small caps. While big multi-nationals
have resources worldwide, most small
cap stocks are American companies.
The tax cuts will directly and positively
affect those stocks that make up the
small cap sector.
Bank of America has announced this week
that their proprietary "Bull and
Bear" indicator has reached levels
that now predict a market decline.
In the past eleven times that this indicator
has reached current levels, there were
eleven selloffs of at least -12%. That
is eleven out of eleven.
Bank of America has also stated that
their private client’s cash allocation
is now at 10%. For example, it was at
21% in 2008-2009.
All of the above is worrisome, but unless
the trend turns down, the rally remains
intact.
Regularly
Followed Weekly Charts
NYSE Advance-Decline
Line
The NYSE Advance-Decline line reached
new highs this week. The uptrend on this
chart is quite apparent and quite bullish.
During a big advance, if you see weakness
in this chart it points to fewer stocks
participating. A clear signal of an upcoming
correction.
The Nasdaq 100 Index Advance-Decline
Line is almost becoming parabolic.
Two weeks ago the NDX
A-D line rose + 1.16 %.
Last week the A-D line
rose again, up + 1.36 %.
And this week the A-D line
was up + 2.64 %.
CBOE Volatility
Index (VIX).
We extended this chart to a twenty year
time-frame to show what has occurred
every time VIX reached the 10.0 level.
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Fibtimer Timing + 275.7 % |
3
Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 67.1 %
|
1
Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 44.3.%
|
Sleepless
nights as your
investments are
consumed by a volatile
Wall Street?
Consider Fibtimer's
trend trading services.
Our trading plans
are unemotional
and are always
invested with the
trend, which ever
way it is headed.
Fibtimer's
timing strategies MAKE
MONEY in
BOTH advancing & declining
markets. No more
sleepless nights.
No more upset
stomachs.
We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been timing the markets
successfully for over 25 years.
Join us and start
winning!
We
are currently offering HALF
PRICE to
new subscribers.
---
Available ONLY This
Weekend - only
$12.25 monthly
Special
HALF PRICE Offer - CLICK
HERE NOW
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The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed
at 11.08% on Friday. In early January
this indicator reached as low as 8.92%
A VIX 10.0 is considered by many to
be contrarian bearish, but VIX can
stay contrarian bearish for a while
once a strong rally is started.
Market Internals
Last week the number
of NYSE stocks above their 200-day
moving averages lost ground, declining
- 1.50%
But this week that loss
was erased as the number of NYSE stocks
above their 200-day average jumped
+ 1.63%.
Note that this index
has broken above and closed above its
long-term declining trend resistance
line.
Sentiment Indicators
These are contrarian
indicators. Typically, when advisors
are mostly bullish, the markets are
near a top.
Note that these numbers
are from a week ago. They reflect
the preceding week's sentiment.
The
number of bulls remains high. Remember
that those who are neither bullish
nor bearish have bullish positions
and really should be considered bullish.
Add bulls and those not specifically
bearish and you get 87.2%
with at least some bullish market positions.
Fibonacci Support
/ Resistance Levels
We are now looking at "support
levels" from the correction lows.
Fib support levels on the weekly chart
are as follows; the 38.2% retracement
support at 2470, the 50% retracement
support at 2346 and the critical 61.8%
retracement support at 2222.
Market Moving
Economic Reports Released this Week:
Mining and utility output helped drive
the national activity index to 0.27
in December vs a revised 0.11 percent
in November and October's revised 0.87
outsized gain in a month that reflected
the reversal of hurricane effects.
October's gain is inflating the 3-month
average which is up slightly at 0.42.
Growth of manufacturing activity in
the Fifth District slowed more than
analysts expected in January, with
the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
declining 6 points from December to
14. The moderating growth seen in the
fifteenth consecutive monthly expansion
continued December's deceleration from
November when the index reached the
highest level since 1993, and reflected
decreases in the metrics for shipments,
down 9 to 15, and employment, down
10 points to 20.
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plus Updates
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These
FREE reports are NOT enough
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only
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Available
this Weekend
Bull & Bear
Timer
10 Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 275.7 % |
3
Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 67.1 %
|
1
Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 44.3.%
|
Sleepless
nights as your
investments are
consumed by a volatile
Wall Street?
Consider Fibtimer's
trend trading services.
Our trading plans
are unemotional
and are always
invested with the
trend, which ever
way it is headed.
Fibtimer's
timing strategies MAKE
MONEY in
BOTH advancing & declining
markets. No more
sleepless nights.
No more upset
stomachs.
We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been timing
the markets successfully for over 25 years.
Join us and start winning!
We
are currently offering HALF
PRICE to
new subscribers.
---
Available ONLY This
Weekend - only
$12.25 monthly
Special
HALF PRICE Offer - CLICK
HERE NOW
|
|
Existing-home sales were at a 5.57
million seasonally adjusted annual
rate in December, the National Association
of Realtors said Wednesday. Sales of
previously-owned homes tumbled in December
as an ongoing inventory crunch worsened.
Existing-home sales were down 3.6%
for the month, though they were up
1.1% compared to a year ago.
Strength in manufacturing leads what
is nevertheless a moderate PMI composite
which came in at 53.8 for the January
flash and slightly under Econoday's
consensus for 54.0. Softness for a
second month is in services where the
index, held back by weakness in output,
improved by nearly a point but still
fell short of expectations at 53.3.
Initial U.S. jobless claims rose by
17,000 to 233,000 in the seven days
ended Jan. 20. below the 240,000 forecast
of economists polled by MarketWatch.
The more stable monthly average of
claims fell by 3,500 to 240,000, the
government said Thursday.
The new home sales report is known for its volatility which was apparent in
November as the annualized rate surged to 733,000 for a 17.5 percent monthly
spike, the largest in 25 years. But rates in the two prior months, at 624,000
and 635,000, were also unusually strong and marked a pivot higher for the series.
After swinging sharply on hurricane
effects in September and October, the
index of leading economic indicators
held steady at a healthy 0.4 percent
pace in November. December's call,
boosted by the stock market and ISM
manufacturing orders, is a 0.5 percent
gain.
Durable-goods orders accelerated by
2.9% in December, led by higher demand
for airplanes and autos. Orders rose
a smaller 0.6% excluding contracts
for transportation equipment. Transportation
orders often exaggerate the ups and
downs in the durable-goods report.
The 2.6 percent headline rate doesn't
do justice to fourth-quarter GDP where
consumer spending rose a very strong
3.8 percent that reflects a 14.2 percent
burst in durable spending. Residential
investment, which is another consumer-related
component, rose at a very impressive
11.6 percent annualized rate.
Conclusion:
The SPX rose a solid + 2.23% for the
full week and the advance was supported
by excellent breadth with the NYSE
Advance-Decline Line rising + 0.24%.
Though overbought, the stock market
continues move higher. The advance
will end, but no-one knows when. So
we continue to ride the whirlwind ever
higher.
The SPX portion of this
strategy is BULLISH. Aggressive traders
should be in the Rydex Nova
S&P 500 Fund - RYNVX (or other
bullish S&P 500 index fund or ETF
such as SPY or RSP).
S&P 500 Index (SPX) Daily Chart
S&P 500 Index (SPX), Weekly Chart
Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) Chart Analysis
Last week we wrote:
"The Nasdaq 100 Index
(NDX) again hit new highs and this is the third
week in the new year with gains for tech stocks.
This week the NDX added + 1.12%. This makes
a + 6.72% gain for the sector in 2018."
This week:
Another bull market high for the Nasdaq 100
Index (NDX). This tech index rally is actually
strengthening.
Last week we wrote that in the first three weeks,
the NDX rose + 6.72%. But after this week's gain
of + 2.76%, the 2018 gain to date is now + 9.48%.
The NDX is hitting full year price targets for
some, and it is still January.
Fibtimer HALF
PRICE Offer!
Get
Our Full Reports
Every Weekend
plus Updates Every Trading Day
These FREE reports are
great, but getting our timing signals daily is
what you need to beat the market!
only
$12.25 monthly for
full year
Bull & Bear
Timer
10 Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 275.7 % |
3
Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 67.1 %
|
1
Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 44.3.%
|
Sleepless
nights as your investments are consumed
by a volatile Wall Street?
Consider Fibtimer's
trend trading services. Our trading
plans are unemotional and are always
invested with the trend, which
ever way it is headed.
Fibtimer's
timing strategies MAKE
MONEY in BOTH advancing & declining
markets. No more sleepless nights.
No more upset stomachs.
We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been timing
the markets successfully for over 25 years.
Join us and start winning!
We
are currently offering HALF
PRICE to new and returning
subscribers.
--- only
$12.25 monthly for full year
Special
HALF PRICE Offer - CLICK
HERE NOW
|
|
When you have strong gains in the first days of
the New Year it usually means you will have a positive
year ahead.
With lower tax rates and a growing economy, we
expect to see higher highs in coming months.
MACD on the daily chart has posted a sharply bullish
crossover. MACD closed this week at 136.66.
MACD on the less volatile weekly chart of the
NDX closed at + 266.05. Weekly MACD posted a bullish
crossover back in October and has stayed bullish
since.
We have posted Fibonacci retracement "support" levels
for the advance from the February 2016 lows. Those
Fib support levels (weekly chart)
are; 38.2% at NDX 5829, 50% at NDX 5455 and 61.8%
at NDX 5081.
Conclusion:
Last week we wrote: "A bullish start
to the New Year usually points to higher highs
for the full year. We now have three straight
weeks of higher highs."
Now we have four weeks of higher highs.
The NDX Advance-Decline line moved sharply higher
also, which shows that it is not just a few stocks
carrying this rally, but most of the stocks in
this index are participating.
The NDX portion of this strategy
is BULLISH. Aggressive traders should be in the
Rydex NDX 100 Fund - RYOCX (or other bullish NDX
100 index fund or ETF such as QQQ).
Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), Daily Chart
Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), Weekly Chart
|