For Sunday, January 28, 2018 

 
 


S&P 500 (SPX) & Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Timing
Aggressive - Both Bullish, Bearish & Cash Positions         Ranked #1 on TimerTrac


For Sunday, January 28, 2018                                Go to Website

Current Strategy Positions
Fibtimer currently has 13 successful strategies

  S&P 500 Position -         BULLISH
  Nasdaq 100 Position -  BULLISH
  SmallCaps Position -
   BULLISH
  U.S. Dollar Position -    BEARISH
  Bond Fund Position -    BEARISH
  Gold Fund Position  -    BULLISH

These positions were started over previous weeks. You need a paid subscription for real time signals. Sector Funds, ETF and Stock positions are not included above.


S&P 500 Index - SPX   (50% of Portfolio)

Entry
Date
Signal
    Mutual Fund
        or Index
Entry      Current
Price      Price
            Friday Close
Time
Frame
Gain
Loss
Current
Position
9/5/17 Bullish Rydex Nova S&P Fd 62.58d - 79.28 9/5 - 1/26  + 26.7 %     Open
3/31/17 Bullish Rydex Nova S&P Fd 60.14 - 63.78 3/31 - 8/22  + 6.1 %   Closed
1/5/17 Bullish Rydex Nova S&P Fd 56.54 - 60.55 1/5 - 3/10  + 7.1 %   Closed
9/22/16 Bullish Rydex Nova S&P Fd 51.67d - 56.11 9/22 - 1/3  + 8.7 %   Closed

S&P 500 Index (SPX) Chart Analysis

Last week:

"On Tuesday the Dow Industrials crossed 26,000 for the first time. This was only a couple weeks after the Dow crossed 25,000. The Dow took a steep dive after the 26,000 level was surpassed. But not to fear, the Dow was back above 26,000 the following day and closed above 26,000, at 26071 for the full week."

This week:

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is trading at a price-to-sales ratio of 2.35x. This is a record high valuation.

The SPX advance has been pretty much non-stop. In the nineteen trading days of this New Year, the index has risen in all but five of them.

In fact the SPX has made new bull market highs fourteen times so far this January. This tops a previous record of 11 times that has stood since 1964, according to the WSJ Market Data Group.

Over time, the SPX has pulled back 5% about four times annually since 1927. In this current advance the SPX has not had a 5% pullback in 400 trading days.

Is the SPX overbought? Absolutely. It is severely overbought. But it has been for weeks and weeks. If overbought was a sell signal, you would have missed a good part of this advance.

Being overbought is a warning flag, but the trend must actually change in order to exit.

For the full week, the SPX gained + 1.18%.

Small caps continue to rise, though in a fitful way. Importantly, the long-term rising trend support line, since August 2016, shows the real trend.

Small caps have been volatile, but their trend is up.

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The new tax-cut plan should be very beneficial to small caps. While big multi-nationals have resources worldwide, most small cap stocks are American companies.

The tax cuts will directly and positively affect those stocks that make up the small cap sector.

Bank of America has announced this week that their proprietary "Bull and Bear" indicator has reached levels that now predict a market decline.

In the past eleven times that this indicator has reached current levels, there were eleven selloffs of at least -12%. That is eleven out of eleven.

Bank of America has also stated that their private client’s cash allocation is now at 10%. For example, it was at 21% in 2008-2009.

All of the above is worrisome, but unless the trend turns down, the rally remains intact.

Regularly Followed Weekly Charts

NYSE Advance-Decline Line

The NYSE Advance-Decline line reached new highs this week. The uptrend on this chart is quite apparent and quite bullish.

During a big advance, if you see weakness in this chart it points to fewer stocks participating. A clear signal of an upcoming correction.

The Nasdaq 100 Index Advance-Decline Line is almost becoming parabolic.

Two weeks ago the NDX A-D line rose + 1.16 %.

Last week the A-D line rose again, up + 1.36 %.

And this week the A-D line was up + 2.64 %.

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX).

We extended this chart to a twenty year time-frame to show what has occurred every time VIX reached the 10.0 level.

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10 Year Results

Fibtimer Timing + 275.7 %
3 Year Results
 Fibtimer Timing  + 67.1 %

1 Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 44.3.%

Sleepless nights as your investments are consumed by a volatile Wall Street? Consider Fibtimer's trend trading services. Our trading plans are unemotional and are always invested with the trend, which ever way it is headed.

Fibtimer's timing strategies MAKE MONEY in BOTH advancing & declining markets. No more sleepless nights. No more upset stomachs.

We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been timing the markets successfully for over 25 years.

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The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 11.08% on Friday. In early January this indicator reached as low as 8.92%

A VIX 10.0 is considered by many to be contrarian bearish, but VIX can stay contrarian bearish for a while once a strong rally is started.


Market Internals

Last week the number of NYSE stocks above their 200-day moving averages lost ground, declining - 1.50%

But this week that loss was erased as the number of NYSE stocks above their 200-day average jumped + 1.63%.

Note that this index has broken above and closed above its long-term declining trend resistance line.

Sentiment Indicators

These are contrarian indicators. Typically, when advisors are mostly bullish, the markets are near a top.

Note that these numbers are from a week ago. They reflect the preceding week's sentiment.

The number of bulls remains high. Remember that those who are neither bullish nor bearish have bullish positions and really should be considered bullish. Add bulls and those not specifically bearish and you get 87.2% with at least some bullish market positions.

  • Investor's Intelligence Bull vs. Bears as of Jan 23, show 64.7% bullish vs. 12.8% bearish. Bull vs. Bears last week were 66.7% bullish vs. 12.7% bearish

  • Barron's Magazine Consensus Index shows 76% bullish vs. 77% bullish the previous week.

  • Market Vane's Bullish Consensus shows 72% are bullish vs. 72% bullish the week before.

Fibonacci Support / Resistance Levels

We are now looking at "support levels" from the correction lows. Fib support levels on the weekly chart are as follows; the 38.2% retracement support at 2470, the 50% retracement support at 2346 and the critical 61.8% retracement support at 2222.

Market Moving Economic Reports Released this Week:

Mining and utility output helped drive the national activity index to 0.27 in December vs a revised 0.11 percent in November and October's revised 0.87 outsized gain in a month that reflected the reversal of hurricane effects. October's gain is inflating the 3-month average which is up slightly at 0.42.

Growth of manufacturing activity in the Fifth District slowed more than analysts expected in January, with the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index declining 6 points from December to 14. The moderating growth seen in the fifteenth consecutive monthly expansion continued December's deceleration from November when the index reached the highest level since 1993, and reflected decreases in the metrics for shipments, down 9 to 15, and employment, down 10 points to 20.

 

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plus Updates Every Trading Day

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10 Year Results

Fibtimer Timing + 275.7 %
3 Year Results
 Fibtimer Timing  + 67.1 %

1 Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 44.3.%

 

Sleepless nights as your investments are consumed by a volatile Wall Street? Consider Fibtimer's trend trading services. Our trading plans are unemotional and are always invested with the trend, which ever way it is headed.

Fibtimer's timing strategies MAKE MONEY in BOTH advancing & declining markets. No more sleepless nights. No more upset stomachs.

We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been timing the markets successfully for over 25 years.

Join us and start winning!

We are currently offering HALF PRICE to new subscribers.

--- Available ONLY This Weekend - only $12.25 monthly

Special HALF PRICE Offer - CLICK HERE NOW

 

Existing-home sales were at a 5.57 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in December, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. Sales of previously-owned homes tumbled in December as an ongoing inventory crunch worsened. Existing-home sales were down 3.6% for the month, though they were up 1.1% compared to a year ago.

Strength in manufacturing leads what is nevertheless a moderate PMI composite which came in at 53.8 for the January flash and slightly under Econoday's consensus for 54.0. Softness for a second month is in services where the index, held back by weakness in output, improved by nearly a point but still fell short of expectations at 53.3.

Initial U.S. jobless claims rose by 17,000 to 233,000 in the seven days ended Jan. 20. below the 240,000 forecast of economists polled by MarketWatch. The more stable monthly average of claims fell by 3,500 to 240,000, the government said Thursday.

The new home sales report is known for its volatility which was apparent in November as the annualized rate surged to 733,000 for a 17.5 percent monthly spike, the largest in 25 years. But rates in the two prior months, at 624,000 and 635,000, were also unusually strong and marked a pivot higher for the series.

After swinging sharply on hurricane effects in September and October, the index of leading economic indicators held steady at a healthy 0.4 percent pace in November. December's call, boosted by the stock market and ISM manufacturing orders, is a 0.5 percent gain.

Durable-goods orders accelerated by 2.9% in December, led by higher demand for airplanes and autos. Orders rose a smaller 0.6% excluding contracts for transportation equipment. Transportation orders often exaggerate the ups and downs in the durable-goods report.

The 2.6 percent headline rate doesn't do justice to fourth-quarter GDP where consumer spending rose a very strong 3.8 percent that reflects a 14.2 percent burst in durable spending. Residential investment, which is another consumer-related component, rose at a very impressive 11.6 percent annualized rate.

Conclusion:

The SPX rose a solid + 2.23% for the full week and the advance was supported by excellent breadth with the NYSE Advance-Decline Line rising + 0.24%.

Though overbought, the stock market continues move higher. The advance will end, but no-one knows when. So we continue to ride the whirlwind ever higher.

The SPX portion of this strategy is BULLISH. Aggressive traders should be in the Rydex Nova S&P 500 Fund - RYNVX (or other bullish S&P 500 index fund or ETF such as SPY or RSP).

S&P 500 Index (SPX) Daily Chart


S&P 500 Index (SPX), Weekly Chart



Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) Chart Analysis

Last week we wrote:

"The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) again hit new highs and this is the third week in the new year with gains for tech stocks. This week the NDX added + 1.12%. This makes a + 6.72% gain for the sector in 2018."

This week:

Another bull market high for the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX). This tech index rally is actually strengthening.

Last week we wrote that in the first three weeks, the NDX rose + 6.72%. But after this week's gain of + 2.76%, the 2018 gain to date is now + 9.48%.

The NDX is hitting full year price targets for some, and it is still January.


Fibtimer HALF PRICE Offer!

Get Our Full Reports Every Weekend
plus Updates Every Trading Day

These FREE reports are great, but getting our timing signals daily is what you need to beat the market!

only $12.25 monthly for full year
Bull & Bear Timer
10 Year Results

Fibtimer Timing + 275.7 %
3 Year Results
 Fibtimer Timing  + 67.1 %

1 Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 44.3.%

Sleepless nights as your investments are consumed by a volatile Wall Street? Consider Fibtimer's trend trading services. Our trading plans are unemotional and are always invested with the trend, which ever way it is headed.

Fibtimer's timing strategies MAKE MONEY in BOTH advancing & declining markets. No more sleepless nights. No more upset stomachs.

We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been timing the markets successfully for over 25 years.

Join us and start winning!

We are currently offering HALF PRICE to new and returning subscribers.

--- only $12.25 monthly for full year

Special HALF PRICE Offer - CLICK HERE NOW


When you have strong gains in the first days of the New Year it usually means you will have a positive year ahead.

With lower tax rates and a growing economy, we expect to see higher highs in coming months.

MACD on the daily chart has posted a sharply bullish crossover. MACD closed this week at 136.66.

MACD on the less volatile weekly chart of the NDX closed at + 266.05. Weekly MACD posted a bullish crossover back in October and has stayed bullish since.

We have posted Fibonacci retracement "support" levels for the advance from the February 2016 lows. Those Fib support levels (weekly chart) are; 38.2% at NDX 5829, 50% at NDX 5455 and 61.8% at NDX 5081.

Conclusion:

Last week we wrote: "A bullish start to the New Year usually points to higher highs for the full year. We now have three straight weeks of higher highs."

Now we have four weeks of higher highs.

The NDX Advance-Decline line moved sharply higher also, which shows that it is not just a few stocks carrying this rally, but most of the stocks in this index are participating.

The NDX portion of this strategy is BULLISH. Aggressive traders should be in the Rydex NDX 100 Fund - RYOCX (or other bullish NDX 100 index fund or ETF such as QQQ).

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), Daily Chart


Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), Weekly Chart

 


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