S&P
500 Index - SPX (50%
of Portfolio)
Entry
Date |
Signal |
Mutual
Fund
or
Index |
Entry Current
Price Price
Friday Close |
Time
Frame |
Gain
Loss |
Current
Position |
|
9/5/17 |
Bullish |
Rydex Nova S&P
Fd |
63.99 - 71.42 |
9/5 - 1/12 |
+ 21.1 % |
Open |
|
3/31/17 |
Bullish |
Rydex Nova S&P
Fd |
60.14 - 63.78 |
3/31 - 8/22 |
+ 6.1 % |
Closed |
|
1/5/17 |
Bullish |
Rydex Nova S&P
Fd |
56.54 - 60.55 |
1/5 - 3/10 |
+ 7.1 % |
Closed |
|
9/22/16 |
Bullish |
Rydex
Nova S&P
Fd |
51.67d
- 56.11 |
9/22
- 1/3 |
+
8.7 % |
Closed |
|
S&P 500 Index
(SPX) Chart Analysis
Last week:
"Last weekend, though we are
100% in bullish positions, we had some concern about
this first week of 2018. We have, in the past, had
our head handed to us in the first week of the New
Year. That was certainly not the case this time as
the S&P 500 Index (SPX) not only rose on every
one of this week's trading days, it gapped up at
the open on every trading day."
This week:
Money continues to pour into those sectors of the
stock market that tend to benefit from stronger economic
growth. Energy, financial, technology sectors are all
rising.
Small caps are finally getting bullish attention as
the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index (RUT) finally broke
out this week, rising some + 2.05 %.
Two weeks ago we wrote: "why are small caps
not at new highs? Tax cuts should be powering small
caps higher, but as you can see in the below chart
small caps are struggling to break out above the
RUT 1550 level."
Well that was not the case this week as small caps
moved sharply higher, breaking through resistance and
setting the stage for further gains.
The sector still lags behind the big caps, but this
week was a step in the right direction.
The Dow Jones Average (DJIA), crossed 25,000 for the
first time in history last week and this week closed
at DJIA 25803.19.
Anyone wish to bet on when the Dow crosses 26,000?
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) traded as low as 8.92
last week. This week VIX closed at 10.16. VIX is a
contrarian index and a reading of 10.0 or lower is
considered a bearish warning.
So far VIX has been urging caution while the stock
market continues to skyrocket. VIX will eventually
be vindicated, but until then we will stay invested
as new history is written.
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The SPX closing at a new bull market
high four days in a row last week, the
very important first four days of 2018.
This week the SPX closed higher four
out of five trading days, adding + 1.57%
for the full week.
On the only day that stocks sold off,
Wednesday, most of the losses were erased
by the close.
The NYSE Advance-Decline line, possibly
the most important breadth indicator,
rallied again rallied this week and closed
at a new bull market high + 0.23%.
Importantly the advance continues to
be confirmed by increasing and steady
breadth.
At the same time those stocks which
tend to decline when facing rising interest
rates such as REIT stocks and Utility
stocks, both of which we have held bearish
positions in for some time, are selling
off.
Bill Miller of Miller Value Partners
said this week that a break above 2.6%
for the 10-year yield would have a dramatic
effect on stocks.
"If those 10-year yields go through
2.6% and head towards 3%, I think we
could have the kind of a melt-up we had
in 2013, where we had the market go up
30%” Miller said.
In 2013, investors began to lose money
in bonds, prompting them to take money
out of bond funds and put it into equity
funds, he said. Yields rise as Treasury
prices fall. Yield on the 10-year Treasury
note rose this week to 2.56%.
Increasing consumer credit is usually
bullish as it indicates consumers feel
positive about the future and are willing
to borrow.
In economic reports this week, revolving
credit, which is mostly made up of credit-card
loans, accelerated to an annual rate
of 13.3% in November, the fastest pace
since last December and well above the
9.9% gain in October.
Non-revolving credit, which covers loans
for education and cars, rose at an annual
rate of 7.2% in November, the fastest
pace since October 2016 and above the
5.3% rate in October.
Lastly, Walmart is closing 63 Sam’s
Club stores while at the same time announcing
starting wages will be raised to $11.00
and workers will get bonuses of $1000.00.
About 10,000 jobs will be affected, according
to The Wall Street Journal.
Regularly
Followed Weekly Charts
NYSE Advance-Decline
Line
The NYSE Advance-Decline Line moved
sharply higher this week.
During a big advance, if you see weakness
in this chart it points to fewer stocks
participating. A clear signal of an upcoming
correction.
The NYSE Advance-Decline Line reversed
off its 50-day moving average line in
mid-November.
For the full week, the NYSE A-D line
gained + 0.23%
The Nasdaq 100 Index Advance-Decline
Line also moved sharply higher as technology
stocks rallied.
Last week the NDX A-D
line rose a substantial + 3.68 %.
This week the A-D line
rose again, up + 1.36 %.
CBOE Volatility
Index (VIX).
We extended this chart to a twenty year
time-frame to show what has occurred
every time VIX reached the 10.0 level
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Fibtimer Timing + 275.7 % |
3
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Fibtimer Timing + 67.1 %
|
1
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Fibtimer Timing + 44.3.%
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Sleepless
nights as your
investments are
consumed by a volatile
Wall Street?
Consider Fibtimer's
trend trading services.
Our trading plans
are unemotional
and are always
invested with the
trend, which ever
way it is headed.
Fibtimer's
timing strategies MAKE
MONEY in
BOTH advancing & declining
markets. No more
sleepless nights.
No more upset
stomachs.
We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been timing the markets
successfully for over 25 years.
Join us and start
winning!
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are currently offering HALF
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The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed
at 10.16% for the full week. In early
January this index reached as low as
8.92%
A VIX 10.0 is considered by many to
be contrarian bearish, but VIX can
stay contrarian bearish for a while
once a strong rally is started.
Market Internals
Last week the number
of NYSE stocks above their 200-day
moving averages moved higher, closing
+ 4.97%.
This week he percentage above their
200-day averages closed down a fraction
- 0.70%.
Note that this index
has broken above and closed above its
long-term declining trend resistance
line.
Sentiment Indicators
These are contrarian
indicators. Typically, when advisors
are mostly bullish, the markets are
near a top.
Note that these numbers
are from a week ago. They reflect
the preceding week's sentiment.
The
number of bulls remains high. Remember
that those who are neither bullish
nor bearish have bullish positions
and really should be considered bullish.
Add bulls and those not specifically
bearish and you get 86.5%
with at least some bullish market positions.
Fibonacci Support
/ Resistance Levels
We are now looking at "support
levels" from the correction lows.
Fib support levels on the weekly chart
are as follows; the 38.2% retracement
support at 24.20, the 50% retracement
support at 23.05 and the critical 61.8%
retracement support at 2190.
Market Moving
Economic Reports Released this Week:
Consumer borrowing rose in November
by the largest monthly amount in 16
years, according to the Federal Reserve
on Monday. Total consumer credit increased
a solid $28 billion in November to
a record seasonally adjusted $3.83
trillion, posting an annual growth
rate of 8.8%. Economists had been expecting
an $18 billion increase.
Small-business confidence hit a record
high in 2017, according to the National
Federation of Independent Businesses.
The optimism index came in at 104.9
in December. According to the NFIB,
the index's average monthly level was
104.8 in 2017, the highest in the history
of the the survey.
Job openings remain high but did slip
0.8 percent to a lower-than-expected
5.879 million in November vs a downward
revised 5.925 million in October. Hires
also fell, down 1.9 percent in the
month to 5.488 million.
Despite a sizable 2.0 percent rise
in petroleum, import prices rose only
0.1 percent in December which falls
short of Econoday's low estimate. Import
prices excluding petroleum fell 0.2
percent in a disappointing result that
will heighten concern over the lack
of inflation.
Economic demand is strong and inventories
are on the rise. Wholesale inventories
jumped 0.8 percent in November which
is one of the biggest builds of the
last year and 1 tenth above the advance
estimate. Yet further stocking looks
likely given the strength of November
sales at the wholesale sector which
surged 1.5 percent following a 0.8
percent rise in October.
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FREE reports are NOT enough
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Timer
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Fibtimer Timing + 275.7 % |
3
Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 67.1 %
|
1
Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 44.3.%
|
Sleepless
nights as your
investments are
consumed by a volatile
Wall Street?
Consider Fibtimer's
trend trading services.
Our trading plans
are unemotional
and are always
invested with the
trend, which ever
way it is headed.
Fibtimer's
timing strategies MAKE
MONEY in
BOTH advancing & declining
markets. No more
sleepless nights.
No more upset
stomachs.
We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been timing
the markets successfully for over 25 years.
Join us and start winning!
We
are currently offering HALF
PRICE to
new subscribers.
---
Available ONLY This
Weekend - only
$12.25 monthly
Special
HALF PRICE Offer - CLICK
HERE NOW
|
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In what might be an early sign of
loosening in the labor market, initial
jobless claims rose 11,000 in the January
6 week to a higher-than-expected 261,000.
The gain is widespread and not centered
in Puerto Rico where claims, at 1,778,
are down about 500 in the latest week
and back to pre-hurricane levels.
Yesterday's weakness in import and
export prices did in fact point to
wide weakness in today's producer price
report where the headline, at minus
0.1 percent in December, is 3 tenths
below Econoday's consensus for the
first decline since August 2016.
The consumer comfort index rose sharply
in the January 7 week, up 1.7 points
to 53.5 which is a 17-year high for
this index. Components show a 17-year
high for the economic assessment as
well as gains for the buying climate
and personal finances. Strength in
consumer confidence was a major theme
of the 2017 economy and today's report
points to more of the same for 2018.
Sales at U.S. retailers rose 0.4%
in December, a fourth straight monthly
gain. Sales for November and October
were both revised higher. Excluding
automobiles and gasoline, retail sales
also rose 0.4% last month.
Housing and medical care costs, which
together make more than half of the
CPI, firmed and fed a constructive
0.3 percent rise in the ex-food and
ex-energy core rate for December.
Conclusion:
During the second week of 2018 the
stock market rallied again, this time
posting a solid + 1.57 % gain for the
SPX.
Last week, the first week of the year,
the SPX gained + 2.6% advance.
In two weeks we have a + 4.17 % advance.
No, this is not likely to continue,
but we need to stay the course even
though it is a bit overwhelming.
You do not often get such large gains
in such a short time.
Lastly, it is a bullish indicator
for the full year when stocks rally
in the first week of the year.
The NYSE Advance-Decline line turned
sharply higher. Breadth is critical
in an advance as it shows that most
company’s prices are contributing
to the advance.
The SPX portion of this
strategy is BULLISH. Aggressive traders
should be in the Rydex Nova
S&P 500 Fund - RYNVX (or other
bullish S&P 500 index fund or ETF
such as SPY or RSP).
S&P 500 Index (SPX) Daily Chart
S&P 500 Index (SPX), Weekly Chart
Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) Chart Analysis
Last week we wrote:
"The Nasdaq 100 Index
(NDX) lost ground during this historically
bullish week. Most of that loss occurred on
Friday, the last trading day of the year. It
could be investors selling losers for tax deductions,
or it could be something more worrisome. We
will need to wait until next week to find out."
This week:
The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) continues its bullish
course, moving sharply higher again and adding
+ 1.58 % to its + 4.02 % gain last week.
This is an amazing gain. Two weeks posting a
+ 5.60 % advance is not something we often see.
Put a note on your calendar to remember it.
When you have strong gains in the first days
of the New Year it usually means you will have
a positive year ahead.
With lower tax rates and a growing economy,
we expect to see higher highs in coming months.
MACD on the daily chart has posted a sharply
bullish crossover.
Fibtimer HALF
PRICE Offer!
Get
Our Full Reports
Every Weekend
plus Updates Every Trading Day
These FREE reports are
great, but getting our timing signals daily is
what you need to beat the market!
only
$12.25 monthly for
full year
Bull & Bear
Timer
10 Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 275.7 % |
3
Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 67.1 %
|
1
Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 44.3.%
|
Sleepless
nights as your investments are consumed
by a volatile Wall Street?
Consider Fibtimer's
trend trading services. Our trading
plans are unemotional and are always
invested with the trend, which
ever way it is headed.
Fibtimer's
timing strategies MAKE
MONEY in BOTH advancing & declining
markets. No more sleepless nights.
No more upset stomachs.
We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been timing
the markets successfully for over 25 years.
Join us and start winning!
We
are currently offering HALF
PRICE to new and returning
subscribers.
--- only
$12.25 monthly for full year
Special
HALF PRICE Offer - CLICK
HERE NOW
|
|
MACD on the less volatile weekly chart of the
NDX closed at + 224.40. Weekly MACD posted a bullish
crossover back in October and has stayed bullish.
We have posted Fibonacci retracement "support" levels
for the advance from the February 2016 lows. Those
Fib support levels (weekly chart)
are; 38.2% at NDX 5659, 50% at NDX 5318 and 61.8%
at NDX 4976.
Conclusion:
A bullish start to the New Year usually points
to higher highs for the full year. This year's
+ 4 % first week is extremely bullish for technology
stocks.
The NDX Advance-Decline line moved sharply higher
also, which shows that it is not just a few stocks
carrying this rally, but most of the stocks in
this index are participating.
The NDX portion of this strategy
is BULLISH. Aggressive traders should be in the
Rydex NDX 100 Fund - RYOCX (or other bullish NDX
100 index fund or ETF such as QQQ).
Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), Daily Chart
Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), Weekly Chart
|