For Sunday, January 14, 2018 

 
 


S&P 500 (SPX) & Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Timing
Aggressive - Both Bullish, Bearish & Cash Positions         Ranked #1 on TimerTrac


For Sunday, January 14, 2018                                Go to Website

Current Strategy Positions
Fibtimer currently has 13 successful strategies

  S&P 500 Position -        BULLISH
  Nasdaq 100 Position -  BULLISH
  SmallCaps Position -
   BULLISH
  U.S. Dollar Position -    BEARISH
  Bond Fund Position -    BEARISH
  Gold Fund Position  -    BULLISH

These positions were started over previous weeks. You need a paid subscription for real time signals. Sector Funds, ETF and Stock positions are not included above.


S&P 500 Index - SPX   (50% of Portfolio)

Entry
Date
Signal
    Mutual Fund
        or Index
Entry      Current
Price      Price
            Friday Close
Time
Frame
Gain
Loss
Current
Position
9/5/17 Bullish Rydex Nova S&P Fd 63.99 - 71.42 9/5 - 1/12  + 21.1 %     Open
3/31/17 Bullish Rydex Nova S&P Fd 60.14 - 63.78 3/31 - 8/22  + 6.1 %   Closed
1/5/17 Bullish Rydex Nova S&P Fd 56.54 - 60.55 1/5 - 3/10  + 7.1 %   Closed
9/22/16 Bullish Rydex Nova S&P Fd 51.67d - 56.11 9/22 - 1/3  + 8.7 %   Closed

S&P 500 Index (SPX) Chart Analysis

Last week:

"Last weekend, though we are 100% in bullish positions, we had some concern about this first week of 2018. We have, in the past, had our head handed to us in the first week of the New Year. That was certainly not the case this time as the S&P 500 Index (SPX) not only rose on every one of this week's trading days, it gapped up at the open on every trading day."

This week:

Money continues to pour into those sectors of the stock market that tend to benefit from stronger economic growth. Energy, financial, technology sectors are all rising.

Small caps are finally getting bullish attention as the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index (RUT) finally broke out this week, rising some + 2.05 %.

Two weeks ago we wrote: "why are small caps not at new highs? Tax cuts should be powering small caps higher, but as you can see in the below chart small caps are struggling to break out above the RUT 1550 level."

Well that was not the case this week as small caps moved sharply higher, breaking through resistance and setting the stage for further gains.

The sector still lags behind the big caps, but this week was a step in the right direction.

The Dow Jones Average (DJIA), crossed 25,000 for the first time in history last week and this week closed at DJIA 25803.19.

Anyone wish to bet on when the Dow crosses 26,000?

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) traded as low as 8.92 last week. This week VIX closed at 10.16. VIX is a contrarian index and a reading of 10.0 or lower is considered a bearish warning.

So far VIX has been urging caution while the stock market continues to skyrocket. VIX will eventually be vindicated, but until then we will stay invested as new history is written.

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The SPX closing at a new bull market high four days in a row last week, the very important first four days of 2018.

This week the SPX closed higher four out of five trading days, adding + 1.57% for the full week.

On the only day that stocks sold off, Wednesday, most of the losses were erased by the close.

The NYSE Advance-Decline line, possibly the most important breadth indicator, rallied again rallied this week and closed at a new bull market high + 0.23%.

Importantly the advance continues to be confirmed by increasing and steady breadth.

At the same time those stocks which tend to decline when facing rising interest rates such as REIT stocks and Utility stocks, both of which we have held bearish positions in for some time, are selling off.

Bill Miller of Miller Value Partners said this week that a break above 2.6% for the 10-year yield would have a dramatic effect on stocks.

"If those 10-year yields go through 2.6% and head towards 3%, I think we could have the kind of a melt-up we had in 2013, where we had the market go up 30%” Miller said.

In 2013, investors began to lose money in bonds, prompting them to take money out of bond funds and put it into equity funds, he said. Yields rise as Treasury prices fall. Yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose this week to 2.56%.

Increasing consumer credit is usually bullish as it indicates consumers feel positive about the future and are willing to borrow.

In economic reports this week, revolving credit, which is mostly made up of credit-card loans, accelerated to an annual rate of 13.3% in November, the fastest pace since last December and well above the 9.9% gain in October.

Non-revolving credit, which covers loans for education and cars, rose at an annual rate of 7.2% in November, the fastest pace since October 2016 and above the 5.3% rate in October.

Lastly, Walmart is closing 63 Sam’s Club stores while at the same time announcing starting wages will be raised to $11.00 and workers will get bonuses of $1000.00. About 10,000 jobs will be affected, according to The Wall Street Journal.

 

Regularly Followed Weekly Charts

NYSE Advance-Decline Line

The NYSE Advance-Decline Line moved sharply higher this week.

During a big advance, if you see weakness in this chart it points to fewer stocks participating. A clear signal of an upcoming correction.

The NYSE Advance-Decline Line reversed off its 50-day moving average line in mid-November.

For the full week, the NYSE A-D line gained + 0.23%

The Nasdaq 100 Index Advance-Decline Line also moved sharply higher as technology stocks rallied.

Last week the NDX A-D line rose a substantial + 3.68 %.

This week the A-D line rose again, up + 1.36 %.

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX).

We extended this chart to a twenty year time-frame to show what has occurred every time VIX reached the 10.0 level

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Fibtimer's timing strategies MAKE MONEY in BOTH advancing & declining markets. No more sleepless nights. No more upset stomachs.

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The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 10.16% for the full week. In early January this index reached as low as 8.92%

A VIX 10.0 is considered by many to be contrarian bearish, but VIX can stay contrarian bearish for a while once a strong rally is started.


Market Internals

Last week the number of NYSE stocks above their 200-day moving averages moved higher, closing + 4.97%.

This week he percentage above their 200-day averages closed down a fraction - 0.70%.

Note that this index has broken above and closed above its long-term declining trend resistance line.

Sentiment Indicators

These are contrarian indicators. Typically, when advisors are mostly bullish, the markets are near a top.

Note that these numbers are from a week ago. They reflect the preceding week's sentiment.

The number of bulls remains high. Remember that those who are neither bullish nor bearish have bullish positions and really should be considered bullish. Add bulls and those not specifically bearish and you get 86.5% with at least some bullish market positions.

  • Investor's Intelligence Bull vs. Bears as of Jan 9, show 64.4% bullish vs. 13.5% bearish. Bull vs. Bears as of Jan 2, show 61.9% bullish vs. 15.2% bearish

  • Barron's Magazine Consensus Index shows 77% bullish vs. 77% bullish the previous week.

  • Market Vane's Bullish Consensus shows 72% are bullish vs. 70% bullish the week before.

Fibonacci Support / Resistance Levels

We are now looking at "support levels" from the correction lows. Fib support levels on the weekly chart are as follows; the 38.2% retracement support at 24.20, the 50% retracement support at 23.05 and the critical 61.8% retracement support at 2190.

Market Moving Economic Reports Released this Week:

Consumer borrowing rose in November by the largest monthly amount in 16 years, according to the Federal Reserve on Monday. Total consumer credit increased a solid $28 billion in November to a record seasonally adjusted $3.83 trillion, posting an annual growth rate of 8.8%. Economists had been expecting an $18 billion increase.

Small-business confidence hit a record high in 2017, according to the National Federation of Independent Businesses. The optimism index came in at 104.9 in December. According to the NFIB, the index's average monthly level was 104.8 in 2017, the highest in the history of the the survey.

Job openings remain high but did slip 0.8 percent to a lower-than-expected 5.879 million in November vs a downward revised 5.925 million in October. Hires also fell, down 1.9 percent in the month to 5.488 million.

Despite a sizable 2.0 percent rise in petroleum, import prices rose only 0.1 percent in December which falls short of Econoday's low estimate. Import prices excluding petroleum fell 0.2 percent in a disappointing result that will heighten concern over the lack of inflation.

Economic demand is strong and inventories are on the rise. Wholesale inventories jumped 0.8 percent in November which is one of the biggest builds of the last year and 1 tenth above the advance estimate. Yet further stocking looks likely given the strength of November sales at the wholesale sector which surged 1.5 percent following a 0.8 percent rise in October.

 

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Sleepless nights as your investments are consumed by a volatile Wall Street? Consider Fibtimer's trend trading services. Our trading plans are unemotional and are always invested with the trend, which ever way it is headed.

Fibtimer's timing strategies MAKE MONEY in BOTH advancing & declining markets. No more sleepless nights. No more upset stomachs.

We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been timing the markets successfully for over 25 years.

Join us and start winning!

We are currently offering HALF PRICE to new subscribers.

--- Available ONLY This Weekend - only $12.25 monthly

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In what might be an early sign of loosening in the labor market, initial jobless claims rose 11,000 in the January 6 week to a higher-than-expected 261,000. The gain is widespread and not centered in Puerto Rico where claims, at 1,778, are down about 500 in the latest week and back to pre-hurricane levels.

Yesterday's weakness in import and export prices did in fact point to wide weakness in today's producer price report where the headline, at minus 0.1 percent in December, is 3 tenths below Econoday's consensus for the first decline since August 2016.

The consumer comfort index rose sharply in the January 7 week, up 1.7 points to 53.5 which is a 17-year high for this index. Components show a 17-year high for the economic assessment as well as gains for the buying climate and personal finances. Strength in consumer confidence was a major theme of the 2017 economy and today's report points to more of the same for 2018.

Sales at U.S. retailers rose 0.4% in December, a fourth straight monthly gain. Sales for November and October were both revised higher. Excluding automobiles and gasoline, retail sales also rose 0.4% last month.

Housing and medical care costs, which together make more than half of the CPI, firmed and fed a constructive 0.3 percent rise in the ex-food and ex-energy core rate for December.

Conclusion:

During the second week of 2018 the stock market rallied again, this time posting a solid + 1.57 % gain for the SPX.

Last week, the first week of the year, the SPX gained + 2.6% advance.

In two weeks we have a + 4.17 % advance. No, this is not likely to continue, but we need to stay the course even though it is a bit overwhelming.

You do not often get such large gains in such a short time.

Lastly, it is a bullish indicator for the full year when stocks rally in the first week of the year.

The NYSE Advance-Decline line turned sharply higher. Breadth is critical in an advance as it shows that most company’s prices are contributing to the advance.

The SPX portion of this strategy is BULLISH. Aggressive traders should be in the Rydex Nova S&P 500 Fund - RYNVX (or other bullish S&P 500 index fund or ETF such as SPY or RSP).

S&P 500 Index (SPX) Daily Chart


S&P 500 Index (SPX), Weekly Chart



Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) Chart Analysis

Last week we wrote:

"The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) lost ground during this historically bullish week. Most of that loss occurred on Friday, the last trading day of the year. It could be investors selling losers for tax deductions, or it could be something more worrisome. We will need to wait until next week to find out."

This week:

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) continues its bullish course, moving sharply higher again and adding + 1.58 % to its + 4.02 % gain last week.

This is an amazing gain. Two weeks posting a + 5.60 % advance is not something we often see. Put a note on your calendar to remember it.

When you have strong gains in the first days of the New Year it usually means you will have a positive year ahead.

With lower tax rates and a growing economy, we expect to see higher highs in coming months.

MACD on the daily chart has posted a sharply bullish crossover.


Fibtimer HALF PRICE Offer!

Get Our Full Reports Every Weekend
plus Updates Every Trading Day

These FREE reports are great, but getting our timing signals daily is what you need to beat the market!

only $12.25 monthly for full year
Bull & Bear Timer
10 Year Results

Fibtimer Timing + 275.7 %
3 Year Results
 Fibtimer Timing  + 67.1 %

1 Year Results
Fibtimer Timing + 44.3.%

Sleepless nights as your investments are consumed by a volatile Wall Street? Consider Fibtimer's trend trading services. Our trading plans are unemotional and are always invested with the trend, which ever way it is headed.

Fibtimer's timing strategies MAKE MONEY in BOTH advancing & declining markets. No more sleepless nights. No more upset stomachs.

We profit year after year after year. In fact, we have been timing the markets successfully for over 25 years.

Join us and start winning!

We are currently offering HALF PRICE to new and returning subscribers.

--- only $12.25 monthly for full year

Special HALF PRICE Offer - CLICK HERE NOW


MACD on the less volatile weekly chart of the NDX closed at + 224.40. Weekly MACD posted a bullish crossover back in October and has stayed bullish.

We have posted Fibonacci retracement "support" levels for the advance from the February 2016 lows. Those Fib support levels (weekly chart) are; 38.2% at NDX 5659, 50% at NDX 5318 and 61.8% at NDX 4976.

Conclusion:

A bullish start to the New Year usually points to higher highs for the full year. This year's + 4 % first week is extremely bullish for technology stocks.

The NDX Advance-Decline line moved sharply higher also, which shows that it is not just a few stocks carrying this rally, but most of the stocks in this index are participating.

The NDX portion of this strategy is BULLISH. Aggressive traders should be in the Rydex NDX 100 Fund - RYOCX (or other bullish NDX 100 index fund or ETF such as QQQ).

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), Daily Chart


Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), Weekly Chart

 


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