For Sunday, May 3, 2009                                                 Go to Website
	Current Strategy Positions FibTimer currently has 11 successful timing strategies   2008 Full Year Results Fibtimer Timing   + 17.3 % S&P 500 Index      - 39.9 %         2009 to Date Fibtimer Timing + 23.3 % S&P 500 Index     - 3.3 %   S&P 500 Position -        BULLISH   Nasdaq 100 Position - BULLISH   Gold Stocks Position -  BULLISH   SmallCaps Position -   BULLISH   U.S. Dollar Position -    BULLISH   Bond Position -              BEARISH These positions were started over previous weeks. You need a paid subscription for real time signals. Sector Funds, ETF and Stock positions are not included above.

Last week we wrote:

"The S&P 500 Index - SPX, continues to knock on the door of new 2009 highs, but so far has been unable to surpass it. We have been looking for profit-taking to slow things down and on Monday, we had just that with a strong and fast selloff. But there was no follow-through on the downside and by Friday, the SPX had returned almost to its prior week's closing high."

This week:

The S&P 500 Index - SPX finally moved into new high territory for 2009, if only fractionally. The close Friday at SPX 877.52 tops the prior January high of SPX 874.09.

This is not exactly a blowout new high, but technically, and especially since it was reached at a Friday close after a long day that was mostly in negative territory until the end, it is bullish for the coming weeks.

We are still overdue for a correction, though during this week there was a great deal of profit taking and corrective activity during the week, relieving some of the overbought tension. But the bulls kept fighting back and pushing the markets higher. One of the indicators of a bull market is the ability to push higher against skepticism and bad news. Certainly this is what we are seeing.

The SPX had higher weekly highs, higher weekly lows and a new rally high for the week at the close. The Nasdaq is accelerating its gains (see NDX analysis below) and is the leading index. This is all bullish.

The CBOE Volatility Index's (VIX) remains in the mid-30s, above the lows reached in mid-April. This shows some concern is still causing traders to take downside insurance in the option's market. Continued caution is bullish, though this index is well off its highs.

Last week we wrote that a close above SPX 874.09 would forecast a run to the next resistance level at SPX 934.70. That is now the case and the new target for this rally is 934.70. It is hard to imagine we will reach this level without a correction, so be prepared for what is an important and needed part of any sustained advance, profit-taking.

SPX 934.70 is a critical level that, if surpassed, would be an Elliott Wave confirmation of a new bull market for the SPX. It is a Wave 4 high (see chart below) and marks important Elliott Wave resistance. If surpassed, it will confirm that a major Elliot Wave Theory low is in place, having been reached in early March. It would also forecast a continued advance with several waves ahead that should last months if not longer.

As we have mentioned in previous reports during this advance, in the early part of this rally there were six better than 9 to 1 up vs. down volume day on the NYSE, in only five weeks. We have no records of six in a row and consider two in a row to be bullish. These 9 to 1 days are bullish indicators if there is more than one such day in a short time span (three months). The huge 1982 bull market started with just two.

The SPX is still well below its 200-day moving average, a widely followed indicator that is considered the dividing line between a bull market and a bear market by many investors. The SPX is well above its 50-day moving average, a short term indicator also followed by many traders. The 50-day moving average itself has now turned higher.

Volatility remains very high with huge daily swings exceeding 1% typical instead of unusual. In fact volatility is at levels not seen since 1930.

Conclusion?

The early March close below the November lows, as well as below the 2000-2002 bear market lows, has probably completed a bearish Elliott Wave (5 Wave) pattern. If this is correct we are at the beginning of a new advance that will last months and possibly years. How far it will go is unknown, but it should be very profitable and consist of several waves higher, with corresponding corrective waves along the way.

The SPX is well above its 50-day moving average. The target for this advance is now SPX 934.70. This level is critical resistance that, if surpassed, would constitute a bull market confirmation in Elliott Wave Theory.

There have been six breadth surges of better than 9 to 1 as discussed above.

Look for profit taking to trim some of these gains next week.

For subscribers who overly worry about short term swings in the financial markets, remember that you do not have to be an aggressive timer to be a profitable timer. This strategy can and does incur small losses on occasion. Money is made in both aggressive and conservative style trading. Our Conservative S&P Timer strategy trades only the long term trends but that means it profits without the numerous buy and sell signals that active and aggressive traders take. The Conservative S&P Timer has been in cash since Jan. 7, 2008.

The SPX portion of this strategy is in a BULLISH position and in the Rydex Nova S&P 500 Fund - RYNVX (or other bullish SPX index fund).

S&P 500 Index (SPX) Daily Chart

S&P 500 Index (SPX), Weekly Chart

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) Chart Analysis

Last week we wrote:

"The Nasdaq 100 Index - NDX is outperforming the SPX by a healthy margin. Typically, in sustained advances, the Nasdaq indexes and small cap indexes outperform the big cap indexes and that is exactly what is occurring and has been occurring in this advance. This is bullish"

This week:

The Nasdaq 100 Index - NDX continues to push higher and technology stocks remain one of the strongest sectors in this rally.

This week the NDX again reached new rally high and new 2009 high.

The NDX has also surpassed its Wave 4 highs at NDX 1378.40, reached back in November 2008. This constitutes an Elliott Wave Theory bull market confirmation, at least for the NDX. We still will need this to occur with the SPX to be fully confident but certainly this is a very bullish indicator.

The NDX closed substantially above its 200-day moving average. As discussed above, the 200-day moving average is considered a make-or-break point between bull market and bear market. The close above it is bullish for this 100 tech company index.

The target for this advance is now the 50% retracement level for the last major leg down in the bear market (for the NDX) from August 2008 - November 2008. This resistance level is at NDX 1498.49. There is minor resistance below it at NDX 1451 constituting the July 2006 correction lows.

The chart clearly shows that a Wave 5 decline was reached in November and successfully retested in March, but to validate a new bull market according to Elliott Wave Theory, the prior Wave 4 highs must be surpassed.

NDX 1498.49 is now the target for this advance.

In conclusion:

The NDX has a Wave 5 Elliott Wave low in place at its November 2008 lows. The NDX has closed above NDX 1378.40, the Wave 4 high which confirms this as a bear market bottom based on Elliott Wave theory.

The NDX is well above its 50-day moving average and the 50-day average has turned higher.

The NDX is now above its 200-day moving average as well.

The NDX continues to outperform the big caps and as the advance progresses, it should continue to outperform.

The NDX portion of this strategy is in a BULLISH position and in the Rydex NDX 100 Fund - RYOCX (or other bullish NDX 100 index fund).