For Sunday, May 18, 2008                                              Go to Website
	Current Strategy Positions FibTimer currently has 11 successful timing strategies   Aggressive S&P Position -          BULLISH   Aggressive Nasdaq Position -   BULLISH   Aggressive GOLD Position -      BEARISH   Aggress. SMALLCAP Position - BULLISH   U.S. Dollar Timer Position -        BULLISH   Aggressive BOND Position -      BEARISH These positions were started over previous weeks. You need a paid subscription for real time signals. Sector Funds, ETF and Stock positions are not included above.

Last week we wrote:

"...The 50-day moving average continues to move higher. The 200-day moving average is within reach and may have been a factor in this week's selling as the SPX came within a fraction of reaching it."

This week:

The S&P 500 Index - SPX turned back up this week and is now challenging several resistance levels that will define the advance for weeks to come.

The first resistance level, which turned back the SPX rally two weeks ago, is at SPX 1416. Reaching it resulted in last week's round of profit-taking.

This week though that oinitial resistance level, the 50% retracement of the entire decline, was surpassed on Thursday, and confirmed on Friday when the market sold off, only to see steady buying come in resulting in a higher close.

With the 50% resistance level overcome, the target becomes the critical Fib 61.8% level at SPX 1454. We should be testing that in the next one to two weeks and if surpassed, will forecast a run to the Wave B highs just above the SPX 1500 level.

The 50-day moving average is now in a solid uptrend. The 200-day moving average is only a fraction away. The 200-day moving average is considered the defining level between a bull market and a bear market by many traders, and especially institutional traders. Surpassing it should result in an increase in volume to the upside.

Repeated but still current analysis regarding the advance:

• We have three better than 9 to 1 up volume vs. down volume days for the NYSE, in just over a month's time. 9 to 1 days are considered rare events, though the past year has been peppered with them. Still, they do tell us that there have been three recent breadth explosion days, typically only seen at the beginning of substantial new up-trends.

• The CBOE Volatility Index - VIX signaled panic lows twice, in January and March. It is now approaching levels that may be signaling a correction, but not a new bearish decline.
  
• Elliott Wave Theory is still bearish and calling for new legs down in all the major indexes. We will just have to see how this plays out. Elliott Waves have a good track record but are open to huge amounts of interpretation which is why we watch them, but do not trade them. The Elliott Wave Theory, from what we can see, will not turn bullish until the SPX closes above Wave B, just above the SPX 1500.

Note that the Wave B highs, around SPX 1500, if and when surpassed, will invalidate the Elliott Wave bear market forecasts and result in an Elliott Wave buy signal.

Also the Nasdaq indexes are very strong (see below NDX analysis) and are leading this rally which is technically as we would wish it to be.

For our aggressive market timers; These aggressive strategies. For subscribers who overly worry about short term swings in the financial markets, remember that you do not have to be an aggressive timer to be a profitable timer. This strategy can and does incur small losses on occasion. Money is made in both aggressive and conservative style trading. Our Conservative S&P Timer strategy trades only the long term trends but that means it profits without the numerous buy and sell signals that active and aggressive traders take.

The SPX portion of this strategy is in a BULLISH position. We are in the Rydex Nova Fund - RYNVX (or other bullish S&P 500 index fund) for both active & aggressive traders.

S&P 500 Index (SPX) Daily Chart

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) Chart Analysis

Last week we wrote:

"...The NDX was the first to issue a new buy signal and is clearly the leader in this advance. That is as it should be as sustained market advances are typically led by the Nasdaq indexes."

This week:

The Nasdaq 100 Index - NDX is advancing at a torrid pace, far ahead of the SPX, DJIA and small cap indexes.

This week's advance confirmed their position above the 200-day moving average as well as achieving closes above both major resistance levels. The Fib 61.8% resistance level was crossed on Thursday, and was confirmed on Friday with a reversal from heavy early day selling.

The 200-day moving average may actually begin to turn higher in coming days. Quite an accomplishment by an index that had better than a 20% loss at the lows of the decline.

Last week we wrote: "The new target for this portion of the strategy is now NDX 2020. The NDX came close to this level during the week, and possibly it has been technically reached. But still, closing above NDX 2020 is the goal."

The NDX 2020 level was surpassed and now we are looking at the Wave B highs as the next target for this advance. That is all the way up at NDX 2140 so expect some volatility along the way, and probably at least one more round of profit-taking.

The NDX portion of this strategy is in a BULLISH position. We are now in the Rydex Nasdaq 100 Fund - RYOCX (or other bullish Nasdaq 100 index fund) for both active & aggressive traders.

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) Daily Chart