For Sunday, May 4, 2008                                   Go to Website
	Current Strategy Positions FibTimer currently has 11 successful timing strategies   Aggressive S&P Position -          BULLISH   Aggressive Nasdaq Position -   BULLISH   Aggressive GOLD Position -      BEARISH   Aggress. SMALLCAP Position - BULLISH   U.S. Dollar Timer Position -        BULLISH   Aggressive BOND Position -      BEARISH These positions were started over previous weeks. You need a paid subscription for real time signals. Sector Funds, ETF and Stock positions are not included above.

Last week we wrote:

"...Early in the week the markets moved lower but after each wave of selling, it was able to claw its way back from steep losses. Finally those daily losses turned into daily gains on Wednesday through Friday but even during these positive days, the SPX had strong intra-day selling that tried to turn the markets down. It is bullish when poor news, in this case earning reports, cannot hold the markets down for long."

This week:

The S&P 500 Index - SPX, along with the Nasdaq, had strong advances this week, though the volatility certainly has not diminished.

The market is climbing a wall of worry, and this is as it should be. There are still many who firmly believe we are in a bear market and they are just waiting for the next shoe to drop. As the stock market continues to improve, they will slowly be pulled back in, adding more fuel and higher highs.

That is not to say there will not be corrections along the way. We are, in fact, overdue for some profit taking. The SPX in particular is right at its first major resistance level, the 50% retracement of the entire six month decline. That may be a factor in next week's trading.

A close above that resistance level, at SPX 1416 (see below chart) would forecast a run to at least the next resistance level, at SPX 1454.

The 50-day moving average continues to move higher. The 200-day moving average is now within a good day's trading and if surpassed that average will be another solid bullish indicator for traders, and likely for news broadcasters as well.

Note that the Nasdaq 100 Index - NDX (discussed below) actually broke above its 200-day moving average this week.

To recap the previous bullish indicators still in place; we have three better than 9 to 1 up volume vs. down volume days for the NYSE, in just over a month's time. 9 to 1 days are considered rare events, though the past year has been peppered with them. Still, they do tell us that there have been three recent breadth explosion days, typically only seen at the beginning of substantial new up-trends.

The CBOE Volatility Index - VIX signaled panic lows twice, in January and March. It is now approaching levels that may be signaling a correction, but not a new bearish decline.

Elliott Wave Theory is still bearish and calling for new legs down in all the major indexes. We will just have to see how this plays out. Elliott Waves have a good track record but are open to huge amounts of interpretation which is why we watch them, but do not trade them. The Elliott Wave Theory, from what we can see, will not turn bullish until the SPX closes above Wave B, just above the SPX 1500.

Last week we wrote; "The SPX should reach at least 1416 before sellers step in and slow things down. But even this strong resistance level is unlikely to stop a new bullish trend. If this level is surpassed, the next target will be SPX 1454."

We traded above SPX 1416 on Friday and closed just shy of that number.

For our aggressive market timers; These aggressive strategies. For subscribers who overly worry about short term swings in the financial markets, remember that you do not have to be an aggressive timer to be a profitable timer. This strategy can and does incur small losses on occasion. Money is made in both aggressive and conservative style trading. Our Conservative S&P Timer strategy trades only the long term trends but that means it profits without the numerous buy and sell signals that active and aggressive traders take.

The SPX portion of this strategy is in a BULLISH position. We are now in the Rydex Nova Fund - RYNVX (or other bullish S&P 500 index fund) for both active & aggressive traders

S&P 500 Index (SPX) Daily Chart

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) Chart Analysis

Last week we wrote:

"...The NDX chart still has those nagging gaps in it, created at the open on Tuesday and again on Friday of the previous week. Typically gaps are filled, but not always. We will be watching for signs of this next week. An attempt to fill the first gap was made on Tuesday of this week but buyers stepped in and the markets rallied higher."

This week:

Again the Nasdaq 100 Index - NDX had a solid gain and again it is the leader for the stock market. This is the way we want to see it during a new advancing trend.

The NDX is now far above its 50-day moving average and well above the declining trend resistance line it surpassed several weeks ago (see below chart). The 50-day moving average has been moving higher for this index, since late March.

This week, the NDX closed above its 200-day moving average. This is a huge accomplishment for an index that technically was in a bear market having over a 20% loss in the decline. This is a very important bullish indicator. Many traders and money managers consider the 200-day moving average to be the most important indicator of whether we are in bull, or bear, market.

The NDX was the first to issue a new buy signal and is clearly the leader in this advance. That is as it should be as sustained market advances are typically led by the Nasdaq indexes.

Last week we wrote; "The target for this advance remains at NDX 1951, the 50% retracement of the entire market decline. if this level is surpassed, the forecast will be for NDX 2020. Somewhere in there we will be looking for the next healthy correction."

That level was soundly broken to the upside on thursday. The new target for this portion of the strategy is now NDX 2020.

The NDX portion of this strategy is in a BULLISH position. We are now in the Rydex Nasdaq 100 Fund - RYOCX (or other bullish Nasdaq 100 index fund) for both active & aggressive traders.

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) Daily Chart